Extremes at elevation – high flow events on Mount Mansfield

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Presentation transcript:

Extremes at elevation – high flow events on Mount Mansfield 2014 VMC Meeting Jamie Shanley U.S. Geological Survey Beverley Wemple University of Vermont

Outline 1. High elevation hydrology 2. Paired watershed study background 3. General findings 4. Extreme events 5. Climate change implications Proposed development is shown here in blue – new trails and expanded snowmaking coverage. Additional pond to store water for snowmaking. Slopeside village will be constructed at the site of the current Spruce Peak parking lot. Golf course is also planned, but most will fall outside of the basin. When expansion is complete, approximately 24% of the basin will be developed.

High elevation pressures

Climate pressures Number of days per year with greater than 1” of precipitation (BTV station). Insert after your Slide 3 on high elevation pressures (to make the point that we are seeing patterns of more extreme events) Vermont Climate Assessment, 2014

The need for science In New England…. One-third of the land area is over 1000’, but only 4% of the USGS stream gages.

Mt. Mansfield paired-watershed study Motivations To address the need for improved understanding of the effects of alpine development on stream flow and water quality, we initiated in the fall of 2000 a paired-watershed study on the eastern slopes of Mt. Mansfield. The design is similar to that of other paired-watershed studies used in forest hydrology where two adjacent watersheds are selected for continuous monitoring of stream flow and water quality, one of which becomes the experimentally treated watershed. Our watersheds include the 9.8km2 Ranch Brook watershed which lies on state forest land and has been set aside for research and monitoring and the 10.7 km2 West Branch watershed that encompasses the entire Stowe Mountain Resort. Some of you may know that in 1999 Stowe Mountain Resort received approval for a permit to expand operations and infrastructure, including development of the Spruce Peak base area, trail clearing and expanded makmaking, and summer recreational amenities including a golf course.

VMC website

USGS real-time streamflow website West Branch Ranch Brook

Pattern through the Year

Annual flow peaks 1740 cfs, 381 cfsm 1130 cfs, 299 cfsm Highest flow at Sleepers River W-3 since 1991

Peak Timeline vs. Design floods 50-yr flood from 1975 1325 Olson and Bent, 2013

Stalled cell Five large peaks in 2010-2011 L. Champlain flooding Irene

Annual peak dates

Take home Consistent pattern of higher annual runoff in developed basin Very high flow peaks (per unit area) compared to lowlands Recent extremes -- In 14 years of record, 4 to 6 of the largest storms at each gage have occurred in the last 5 years. Magnitude and timing annual peak varies greatly between gages and among years VMC’s continued support of gages provides high elevation flow record not available elsewhere in the state