Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Management in Kazakhstan Duskayev Kassym Kazakh National University named after al-Farabi

Republic of Kazakhstan F total = 2,72 million sq. km

Water Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Fresh water reserves in the Republic of Kazakhstan, cu. km LakesGlaciersRiver flows Water reservoirs Underground waters Sourse:Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan

DEPENDENCE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN UPON NEIGHBOURING STATES Sourse: Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Average annual balance of water resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan Total – 100,5 км 3 Surface flow within the RK 56,6.км 3 Avialable surface water flow – 42.6 км 3 Flow from the RK on adjacent countries 42,4 км 3 Inflow from adjacent countries - 43,9 км 3 Filtration and evaporation losses - 15,5 кm 3 Sourse: Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Map of Main River Basins in Kazakhstan

Basins of rivers, lakes and seas The total average annual water resources of the rivers, кm³ Totalincluding inflow from adjacent countries Aral-Syrdarya Balkhash-Alakol Irtysh Ishim 2.6- Nura-Sarysu 1.3- Tobol-Turgai 2.0- Shu-Talas Ural-Caspian Total for the Republic Rivers flow in the Republic of Kazakhstan, cu. кm Sourse:Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Water Supply by Hydro-economic Basins of the Republic of Kazakhstan N os. Basins of rivers, lakes and seas Water provision, % 50% norm. 75% provision 95% provision 1Aral-Syrdarya Balkhash-Alakol Irtysh100 4Ishim Nura-Sarysu Tobol-Turgai Shu-Talas Ural-Caspian Total for the Republic977660

Water availability in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the average water year Water availability Total, cu. km per year for 1 person, cu. m per 1 square. km, cu. m 100,

Water Consumption Parameters Republic of Kazakhstan Water consumption, % TotalUtilitiesIndustryAgricul ture Other

List of research institutes and organizations in assessing climate change in Kazakhstan State Republican Enterprise The Kazakh State Climate and Ecology Research Institute (KazNIIEK) State Republican Enterprise Kazhydromet Non-governmental organization Coordination Centre on Climate Change Kazakh National University named after al-Farabi Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Education and Science Public Association Karaganda oblast Ecological Museum (Ecomuzei) Institute of Botany and Phytointroduction of the Ministry of Education and Science The Kazakh Forest Management Enterprise International projects

The linear coefficient of temperature trend of the surface air in Kazakhstan Between 1936 and 2005, based on observation data from over 90 meteorological stations in Kazakhstan, the calculated linear trends in the mean air temperature time series and the sum atmospheric precipitation show that the climate of Kazakhstan in the period became significantly warmer. The average annual temperature increased: - by 0,31°C /10 years - by 0,50°C /10 years – in winter - by 0,21°C /10 years – in summer Sourse: State Republican Enterprise The Kazakh State Climate and Ecology Research Institute (KazNIIEK)

Sourse: Kazakh National University named after al-Farabi

Climate change status: main conclusions Ubiquitous increase of seasonal and annual temperature Increase of climate aridity in deserts and semi-deserts areas of Kazakhstan, as well as adjacent areas Increase of total rainfall in the western and northern parts of Kazakhstan and central zone. The same trend was seen in the mountainous parts of the South and South-East of the country. However this had less impact on raising air temperatures. Degradation of glaciers has been recorded by 0,8% in South-East mountains and 1% in glacier storage.

Changes in average annual surface air temperature and annual total precipitation according to hard, medium and soft scenarios of GHG concentrations in Kazakhstan Scenario Climate characteristics Medium Change in average annual air 1.4°C 2.7°C 4.6°C temperature Change in total annual +2% +4% +5% precipitation Extremely Change in average annual 1.2–1.9°C(1.3°C) 2.5–4.0°C (3.0°C) 5.7–8.0°C (6.2°C) high (hard) air temperature Change in total annual 2– +8% (2.2%) -4– +15% (3.7%) 8–28% (6.5%) precipitation Extremely Change in average annual 1.5–2.2°C (1.7°C) 1.6–2.6°C (2.0°C) 3.1–3.4°C (3.3°C) low (soft) air temperature Change in total annual 0-8% (3.0%) -3– +9% (1.7%) -2– +13% (4.1%) precipitation Sourse: State Republican Enterprise The Kazakh State Climate and Ecology Research Institute (KazNIIEK)

Expected climate change: main conclusions Increase of seasonal and annual temperatures Increase of precipitation in the winter period Increase of the annual amount of precipitations Decrease of rainfalls in the summer period since 2050 On the major territory of Kazakhstan increase of precipitation does not compensate increase of air temperature All scenarios of GHG concentration change tend to increase of aridity Sourse: State Republican Enterprise The Kazakh State Climate and Ecology Research Institute (KazNIIEK)

The potential impact of the climate change on water resources will increase on the average from 1-4 % to % in mountain areas will decrease by 7-10% in the plain areas decrease total rivers flow from 100 cu. km to 75 cu. km per year The degradation of the mountains glaciations and its impact on the resources of the river flow primarily in the basin Balkhash- Alakol.

Sourse: Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Education and Science

Regions were ranked on four summary indicators: Economic potential for adaptation ; Sensitivity to Climate Change ; Climate change ; Exposure to risk of emergency situations. Ranking regions in terms of their vulnerability to climate change A preliminary assessment of vulnerability South Kazakhstan region Almaty region North Kazakhstan region Zhamby region l East Kazakhstan region Akmola region Kostanai region Kyzylorda region Pavlodar region Karaganda region Aktobe region West Kazakhstan region Mangistay region Atyrau region Sourse: Project Climate Risk Management in Kazakhstan

The vulnerability of the regions of Kazakhstan Sourse: Project Climate Risk Management in Kazakhstan

Climate change adaptation and mitigation policies in Kazakhstan Kazakhstan ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention (Kyoto Protocol or KP) in May 1995 and April 2009 respectively. On September 17, 2009, Kazakhstan became an official Party to the KP. March 2011, in Astana was presented new joint project of the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the RK, UNDP Kazakhstan and Global Environmental Fund "Assistance to the Republic of Kazakhstan in preparation of the Third National Communication in accordance with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC). Kazakhstan has developed a National Programme for Adaptation to Climate Change.

Activities on adaptation to climate change in the water sector of the Republic of Kazakhstan In the National Communication (INC Kazakhstan, 2008) proposed 3 types of measures: 1) economic development with a focus on waterless and low-water technology; 2) increasing the share of groundwater use; 3) diversion of river flow within regions and beyond their borders.

To reduce the negative effects influence the vulnerability of water resources in the sector requires: reconstruction of irrigation systems and water systems to minimize water loss; replacement of moisture-loving crops on irrigated lands less moisture-loving crops; introduction of advanced technologies in irrigated agriculture; introduction of low-water technology and water recycling systems in existing industrial enterprises and utilities; the use of wastewater; review modes hydropower; dredging, the reconstruction of docks and piers on navigable rivers: replacement of the existing ship types of river transport and fishing fleet on the court with less rainfall.

Activities to optimize the health of aquatic ecosystems and the environment: –strict limitation of economic activity in most shallow areas and transfer it to other areas; –strict measures to establish a sanitary protection zones near surface water sources and places groundwater –mandatory environmental impact assessment of new projects on the use of water resources; –widespread use of chemical and biological wastewater treatment; –development and implementation of additional reclamation, agro forestry and agro-technical measures to ensure environmental safety of water resources; –create a favorable water heat regime for habitat and reproduction of fish and other living organisms, regulating their numbers.

Measures to adapt water resources of Kazakhstan in the basins of the Irtysh, Ishim and Tobol EventsPrioritiesAdditional water volume, million cu. m Estimated investment: $ million Irtysh River Basin Flow regulation Saving water Run-off diversion Groundwater TOTAL Ishim River Basin Flow regulation Saving water Run-off diversion Groundwater TOTAL Tobol River Basin Saving water Groundwater TOTAL

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