Cards Against Humanity & Public Opinion Lindsay Hundley PS/IR 101Z (Summer 2018)

CAH Public Opinion Polling Conducting public opinion polls every month since October 2017. Random sampling using random digit dialing – includes both cell phones and landlines. Data available at https://thepulseofthenation.com.

Another U.S. Civil War? Survey Question: Do you think it is likely or unlikely that there will be a Civil War in the United States within the next decade? Likely Unlikely Don’t know/Refused to Answer What factors might explain why some people think the United States is at risk of Civil War while others do not? Political Party? Age? Race? … … Whether people would prefer Darth Vader to be President?

Preference of Darth Vader or Donald Trump Survey Question: Who would you prefer as president of the United States, Darth Vader or Donald Trump? Darth Vader Donald Trump Don’t know/Refused to Answer Do you think people who’d prefer Darth Vader would be more or less likely to think the U.S. is at risk of civil war?

Formalizing our hypothesis… Hypothesis: People who’d prefer Darth Vader as president are more likely to think there will be a civil war in the United States than people who’d prefer Donald Trump. What’s the IV? Preference of Darth Vader vs. Donald Trump What’s the DV? Belief that another U.S. civil war is likely.

Articulating a Connecting Logic… Why would people who’d prefer Darth Vader be more likely to think the U.S. is at risk of civil war? Proposal: People who’d prefer Darth Vader are more willing to rebel against the government (maybe they’re already plotting something…)

What Assumptions am I Making? Assume that people who’d prefer Darth Vader would be less likely to be deterred by the cost of rebelling against a strong government. Is this a reasonable assumption? How justify? Fearon & Laitin (2003) suggest no, but maybe willingness to incur costs of rebellion depends on how motivated people are?

What data patterns should we expect? If our hypothesis is correct, we would expect to see a higher percentage of people who prefer Darth Vader as president than those who prefer Donald Trump believing that civil war is likely. If our hypothesis is incorrect, we would expect to see either: a similar percentage of people who Prefer Darth Vader and who prefer Donald Trump believing civil war is likely. OR more people who prefer Donald Trump believing civil war is likely.

Results For convenience, let’s drop the “Don’t know/Refuse to Answer Respondents” Darth Vader Donald Trump Don’t Know/ Refuse to Answer Likely 148 115 49 Unlikely 150 362 113 16 13 34 Darth Vader Donald Trump Likely 148 115 Unlikely 150 362

Results Now calculate % of Darth Vader “Supporters” who think civil war is likely/unlikely. And do the same for Donald Trump “Supporters.” Darth Vader Donald Trump Likely 49.6% (148) 24.1% (115) Unlikely 50.3% (150) 75.9% (362)

Is there support for our hypothesis? Yes! 49.6% of Darth Vader supporters think that it is likely that there will be another U.S. civil war, compared to only 24.1% of Donald Trump supporters. This is a 25.5 percentage point difference! How likely would we have observed these results by chance? Using online calculator, we get  χ2/df  =  53.43. The corresponding p-value = 0.000 (Very significant) Darth Vader Donald Trump Likely 49.6% (148) 24.1% (115) Unlikely 50.3% (150) 75.9% (362)

Acknowledge weaknesses in data analysis What is our margin of error? Is our sample non-representative entirely due to a bad luck of the draw? Our sample size is 775 (148+115+150+362) Using online calculator, our margin of error is 3.5%. What about non-sampling error? Are you concerned about the way questions were asked? What if it the sample was PS101 students? Other potential weaknesses: Are there other connecting logics that could be explaining the relationship between preference for Vader and belief civil war is likely? Could our relationship be spurious?

In conclusion… People who’d prefer Darth Vader as President over Donald Trump are more likely to believe that the U.S. is at risk of civil war. While this paper proposed that the reason for this relationship is that people who’d prefer Darth Vader are more likely to envision mobilizing against the state, other connecting logics could be at play. For instance, … Future research should directly test these competing causal logics. For example, researchers could ask additional questions about whether the respondent could envision rebelling against the state…

Other fun finds in CAH data

Common Sense versus Science! People who rely on common sense over science are more likely to support military action against Russia.

Ideological (In)consistency? 70% of democrats do not believe that Muslims are at least partly to blame for acts of terrorism committed in the name of Islam. They say no because blaming an entire group of people for violence committed by a fringe minority is a textbook example of prejudice. Yet, 64% of Democrats think that Trump supporters are at least partly to blame for Charlottesville. 74% of Republicans think that people should be free to express their political opinions in the workplace without getting fired. And yet, 81% think that professional athletes should NOT be allowed to sit or kneel during the national anthem as part of a political protest.

The Real Threat to American Jobs… People who have seen more than one Transformers movie are more likely to worry that their robots will replace their jobs!