CRIMINAL JUSTICE Chapter Twelve Administration and Management Stojkovic/Kalinich/Klofas CRIMINAL JUSTICE Administration and Management Chapter Twelve DECISION MAKING

What Is a Decision? ● A theory or broad framework guides most decisions. ● Decision-making involves consideration of: ○ alternatives ○ possible consequences ○ information about the subject of the decision ● At the other extreme are quantitative decision rules involving the assignment of numerical weights to pieces of information which, when summed, dictate the decision. 2

What Is a Decision? ● The processing of information according to decision rules produces outcomes. ● In cybernetic (self-correcting) decision models, the outcome of prior decisions provides feedback to influence future decisions through its influence on: ○ theory; ○ decision rules; and/or ○ information. 3

Decision-Making Theory ● Increasingly rational criminal justice decisions depend on: ○ increasing consistency in theory; ○ increasing agreement on goals and decision rules; and ○ improving quality of information. ● Scholars of decision making once believed the process to be: ○ rational and ○ capable of producing optimal results or “correct” answers for given situations. 4

Decision-Making Theory ● Bounded rationality suggests that: ○ many decisions in criminal justice are characterized by volumes of information; ○ information is selectively collected and interpreted; and ○ decision processes are influenced by the agencies of the criminal justice system itself. ● Satisfycing—the attainment of acceptable rather than optimal results—thus becomes a useful concept in criminal justice. 5

Decision-Making Theory ● Stability and routinization of decision-making are products of bounded rationality. ○ Bounded rationality also recognizes decision makers’ cognitive limitations. ○ Both satisfycing and garbage can decision making are bounded by organizational culture. ○ Organizational culture is defined as ready- made answers to problems, or a set of basic assumptions and beliefs shared by members that are taken for granted. 6

Decision-Making Theory ● Internal and external politics affect decision making. ○ Internal politics: The influences caused by conflicting individuals and groups within the organization. ○ External politics: The influence that outside parties have on the organization’s mission and the direction the organization takes. 7

Characteristics of Decision Makers ● Sequentialist decision makers: ○ use their experience to determine what information is most important and ○ consider items one at a time in a sequential fashion, based on their view of what item is most important. ● Ah yes! decision makers: ○ collect large amounts of information, and ○ search for patterns in that information. 8

Characteristics of Decision Makers ● Decision makers in criminal justice: ○ often make certain assumptions about the people involved and ○ often structure their data by resorting to precedent, enabling them to categorize cases in ways that allow the cases to be “handled in the usual way.” 9

Decision-Making Styles ● Decision-making styles include: ○ Directive ○ Analytical ○ Conceptual ○ Behavioral ● Decision-making styles can also be seen on a continuum from: ○ autocratic (boss centered), to ○ laissez faire (totally subordinate centered) 10

Characteristics of Information ● Decisions are influenced by: ○ Information accuracy ○ Order effect ○ The availability of information pertaining to alternatives ● The introduction of alternatives (i.e., diversion, prerelease options, shortened parole review dates) could alter decision outcomes in a less conservative direction. 11

Discretion ● Atkins and Pogrebin: Discretion applies to situations in which an official has latitude to make authoritative choices not necessarily specified within the source of authority which governs his decision making. ● Latitude in decision making by frontline staff is a defining characteristic of human service agencies. ● Critics of discretionary decision making argue that it often amounts to a total lack of control. ● Belief that discretion is necessary is now common in criminal justice. ● Some suggest that discretion in the human services is needed due to the complexity of the task. 12

Prediction ● The prediction of human behavior is generally thought of as a highly rational scientific process. ● Even the lack of expertise of nonexperts making predictive decisions is generally not viewed as detracting from the rationality of the process. ● Many criminal justice decisions involve prediction of future behavior. ● Predictive methodologies include clinical and statistical methods ● Current criminal justice literature reveals a preference for statistical predictive methods. 13

Improving Criminal Justice Decisions ● Important themes in criminal justice decision making include: ○ Equity ○ Accuracy ○ Consistency with theory ○ Consistency with resources ○ Contribution to future decisions ● These themes should be considered in ideas for influencing the decision-making process. 14

Improving Criminal Justice Decisions ● Decision makers should frame decisions as probability estimates so that: ○ the accuracy of those estimates can then be checked against actual behavior and ○ policy can dictate the outcome of decisions when probability estimates are made explicit. ● Dichotomous outcomes should be avoided. ● To make the improvement of decision making an evolutionary process, decision makers should have feedback about past decisions they have made. 15