Economic Turmoil & Trade Liberalization

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Presentation transcript:

Economic Turmoil & Trade Liberalization Implications for Extension & Applied Research Organized Symposium AAEA Annual Meetings Tampa, Florida July 30-August 2, 2000 Parr Rosson, Professor & Director Center for North American Studies Dept. of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University

Overview Long Term Trade Outlook Results of Ag. Leadership Survey Issues & Prospects Implications

Long Term Trade Outlook 85% of Grain & Meat Consumption Growth Will Occur Outside Developed Nations through 2020 Most Increases in Production Will Have to Be From Higher Yields, NOT Area Significant Price Increases NOT Projected

Share of Global Increase in Meat Consumption, 1995-2020 119 Million Metric Ton Increase Rest of Asia 12.8% China Developed 40.6% 15.4% SSA 5.0% LA India WANA 16.4% 4.3% 5.6% Source: CHOICES Fourth Quarter 1999

Real Prices of Selected Products (1990 Base) $/Metric Ton $148 Wheat $146 $133 1992-94 $275 Rice $293 2010 $252 $126 2020 Maize $127 $123 $263 Soybeans $244 $234 $2023 Beef $1835 $1768 $1366 Pork $1260 $1209 $1300 Poultry $1175 $1157 $234 Milk $217 $199 $0 $500 $1000 $1500 $2000 $2500 Source: CHOICES Fourth Quarter 1999

U.S. Agricultural Exports by Region $3 Mexico $3 $7 O. Latin America $18 1990 W. Europe $9 $4 Asia $5 All Others $9 $28 1995 $11 $6 $5 $8 $21 1998 $11 $6 $4 $7 $20 1999 $11 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 Billion Dollars Source: FATUS, selected issues.

Top Three FTAA Issues, Survey Southern Region, April-June, 1999 39% US Farm Pgms/Import Protection 37% Market Access/Sanctions 34% SPS/TBT/GMO 33% Other 32% Foreign Govts. 22% Compliance/Dispute Resolution 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: S-287 and Extension International Trade Task Force. N=100

Future Program Interests Survey, Southern Region, April-June, 1999 Ag.Trade Situation 70% Trade & Environment 60% Interact with US Policy Makers 54% Applied Research Results 54% Trade Impacts 53% Food Safety 52% Trade Negotiation Process 47% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: S-287 and Extension International Trade Task Force. N=100