Thinking through PROGRAMME Theory

What is Programme theory So as observed by Patricia Rogers. Programme – Not a programme but could include policies, projects, strategies, funding initiative and practices Theory – Not a theory but could be an articulation of practice wisdom or tacit assumptions (not only formal research based theory)

Programme Theory Theory of Change (what we want to change and our understanding of the key levers of change for individuals, groups and communities) Theory of Action (the implementation strategy - what you are going to do to activate this theory) Learning monitoring and evaluation (how you know you're doing things right and the right things) Logic model – how this is displayed

How the cycle should work Considering where we are now – Looking back (so evaluating what we did and achieved against our ToC for the period under review & then taking context into account and learning from this evaluation – what revisions need to be made to the ToC looking forward Theory of Change Theory of Action: Planning and implementation Evaluation Reflection on emerging lessons Revision of Programme Theory (if required)

Elements of the Programme Theory Goals (Vision) What does NSDS want to achieve/contribute to? Change levers (Outcomes)/what are accountable for? Our understanding of ways in which skills development contributes to these changes - What outcomes can we achieve through our skills development system to contribute to the goal –That is, what are the desired changes we want to be held accountable for ? What changes are others realising that are contributing to the goal Theory of Action (Implementation Strategy) What are we doing to achieve the outcomes (Actions)

How do you measure success? How do you know that you have undertaken your activities as planned? How do you know if you are making the intended change? How do you know if its contributing to the intended goal? (impact) To answer each of these questions we need data – as we go through the next 2 days we will reflect on what data we had to answer these questions and consider the implications for the NSA (in terms of what needs to be put in place).

What is the difference between monitoring and evaluation? Monitoring (focuses on outputs) Evaluation (focuses on outcomes) A process of collecting, storing and analysing pieces of data that are routinely generated by a programme A process of collecting data in order to assess whether or not the programme activities are resulting in the desired changes Most often used to understand if implementation milestones are being reached This is more about understanding success at a higher level than understanding if milestones are reached Serves to flag emerging concerns and then find ways to address these Also serves to flag emerging concerns and then find ways to address these, but focuses on internal and external factors that may be impeding on success Data would include things like: attendance registers, meeting minutes, project reports Data includes all monitoring data BUT usually includes the collection of additional data that would not have been routinely collected as part of monitoring processes The data is then collated (put together) so that it can be analysed and any remedial action decided upon The data is then collated (put together) so that it can be analysed. This supports learning in the sense that it interrogates your theory of change. Did you do things rights and did you do the right things? Many projects are monitored on a monthly basis, but this depends on the nature of the project Evaluations take place at specific points – usually in the middle of a programme (formative or midterm), at the end of a programme (summative) and a specific time after the programme (impact) Usually collected and analysed in-house Sometimes completed in-house, but sometimes completed by an independent and objective organisation.