GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY AND MIGRATION May 23, 2017

Outline  Global Demography  Introduction  Pre-Transition  Transition: Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population Growth  Age-Transition  Consequences of the Demographic Transition

Introduction  Trends  Implications Causes of mortality, fertility declines Longevity bound? Fertility decline bound? Consequences of aging Carrying capacity of the planet

Pre-Transition  Malthusian checks: positive (famine and misery), preventive check (postponement of marriage, vice), population growth limited by economic growth  Europe: high fertility with high mortality especially low age mortality, limited evidence for the same elsewhere but even then below biological limits  Variations around the mean probably due to global climate change

Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population Growth  Mortality Declines Began in Europe 1800, elsewhere 1900 accelerated post WWII Driven by improvements in public health, hygiene, improvements in nutrition Famine mortality declines due to improved food storage and transport Mortality declines in high income countries continued due to improved medicine addressing chronic and degenerative diseases Developing countries: historically rapid increases in life expectancy

Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population Growth  Fertility Declines Economic models point to factors that increase the opportunity cost of children and reduce their benefits especially with women Reductions in benefits of children from external sources, market or government reduce demand further Effect of contraceptive use controversial: European experience without contraception Evidence points to a mortality decline before a fertility decline

Age Distribution  Mortality declines leads to high young age dependency ratios  Fertility declines leads to lower young age dependency and bigger working age population, demographic bonus, dependent on presence of jobs, capital  Increasing longevity leads to increasing old age dependency  Population aging due to lower fertility, increased old age dependency without improvements in health; due to lower mortality, more functional elderly population

Implications  Increased global population  Fewer children leads to more opportunities for other activities, higher quality of children  Mortality decline may lead to longer disabled years or longer disability free years  Fiscal implications for aging populations lead to an increasing burden on the young or the taxpayer  Migration will have modest effects  Investment in developing countries won’t relieve fiscal pressures because smaller economies  Aging population problems addressable

Migration  Outline:  Definitions and Types  Causes  Historical Trends  Migration and Development  International Cooperation  Settlement and Diversity  Migration and the Nation State

Definitions and Types  Internal vs international Migration  Migration of frontiers  Residency as a migrant vs tourists and business travellers

Definitions and Types  Catergories:  Temporary Labor Migrants  Highly skilled and Business Migrants  Irregular Migrants  Refugees  Asylum Seekers  Forced Migration  Family Members  Return Migrants

Causes of Migration  Increase in cross border flows with globalization: transnationalism  Driven largely disparities in socio-economic levels between destination and origin  Enabling institutions are important: migrations systems, migration industries  Poverty and migration: migrants are predominantly middle income

Historical Trends  Colonialism  Inter-war reduction  Post-world war  First phase ( )to North America, Western Europe, Oceania  Second phase to new centers in South Europe, Gulf countries, Latin America, and Asia  Migrants remain a small proportion of world population  However, concentration in few destination countries is the source of contention Urbanization Feminization

Migration and Development  Does migration assist or impede development?  Brain Drain  Benefits for destination country: flexible, lower cost labor  Remittances  Abuse of migrants  Re-integration

Settlement and Diversity  Migration and settlement  Empirical regularity  Granting of rights  Isolation vs assimilation  Reaction from destination populations

Migration and the Nation-State  Border Control  Crisis of Confidence in the Origin  Lack of opportunities at home  Lack of protection for temporary migrants  Migrants and the national identity  Migration is unlikely to dissipate  Global structures must acknowledge this reality and evolve