Childbearing on Hold: the 1958 And 1970 Birth Cohorts Compared Roona Simpson, CRFR, University of Edinburgh UPTAP Conference, Leeds March 21st to 23rd 2007 This presentation reports the results of exploratory analysis of the British Birth cohort studies carried out as part of the UPTAP Postdoctoral Fellowship, in order to gain familiarity with these longitudinal datasets. It looks at the propensity to childlessness amongst adults in their early thirties, comparing men and women, and changes over time.

Firstly, a bit of background context – Britain, along with the overwhelming majority of industrialised nations, has in recent decades experienced declining fertility, to below replacement level. It is important to note there are significant differences both within and between countries; for example, while - as this chart demonstrates - the UK as a whole has experienced low fertility since the early 1970s, Scotland has had the lowest fertility in the UK for the past two decades, declining in 2004 to 1.47, that is very low fertility (though it increased in 2005 to 1.62).

Completed Family Size, Selected Birth Cohorts at age 45 Source: ONS Birth Statistics, Series FM1 33 Changing fertility patterns in the UK in recent decades have been characterised by smaller family sizes and higher levels of childlessness. This chart shows the decline in large families - from 18% of women born in 1940 having 4 or more children, compared to 11% of those born in 1959 (the light blue column) – and a concomitant increase in the proportions remaining childless (the red column) in the same period, to nearly 1 in 5 women born in 1959. The proportions having one child have remained broadly similar, a very different pattern from some other European countries. Also included here are figures for the 1920 birth cohort, of whom over 40% had either no children or only 1 – this shows that contemporary figures are not unprecedented. Looking only at figures from the 1960s ‘baby boom’ may give a somewhat misleading picture; looking at longer term historical trends indicates more a picture of ‘flux’ rather than linear decline.

Another aspect of changing fertility patterns has been the ‘postponement’ of childbirth. In 2005, the mean age of women having their first birth was 27.3 years, a rise of 3.6 years from 1970. This chart illustrates the declining proportions of children born to women in or before their twenties, and the increasing proportion being born to women in their thirties. Since 1992 women aged 30-34 have had a higher fertility rate than those aged 20-24. These last slides have given an aggregate picture of changes in fertility patterns over the past few decades, but tell us little about who is doing what – delayed childbirth is socially selective, and the following slides present the results of analysis of the cohort studies, looking at childlessness amongst young adults in relation to various factors identified as important in the literature, including social class background, educational qualifications, and partnership status.

Childlessness at 29, by Cohort and Sex (%) This chart shows the proportions of men and women remaining childless at age 29 in each cohort. Although there are only twelve years, between these cohorts, there’s been a significant increase in childlessness during this time. Previous analysis by Berrington (2003) observes that over the same period there has been little change in the proportions of women (around 10%) becoming teenage mothers, indicating increasing polarisation between women in relation to giving birth. The 1958 cohort members will have experienced their early adulthood in the 1980s, a somewhat different political, social and economic context from those born in 1970; for example, while the 1958 cohort initially experienced a buoyant labour market but faced worse conditions as they got older, the opposite occurred for those born in 1970. The relationship between wider social processes and changes at the family or individual level is extremely complex - while it’s not possible to consider the extent to which particular changes support or inhibit family formation, the findings presented here should be considered in relation to the broader social context in which they are taking place.

Childlessness at 29, by Social Class Background (%) This chart shows the significant differences in levels of childlessness by social class background (identified using the occupational social class of the cohort member’s father/father figure at the time of birth). For example, looking at women born in 1958, 46% from professional or managerial backgrounds (I and II) were childless at 29, compared with 26% of those with fathers in semi-skilled and unskilled occupations (IV and V). Over time, the largest increase has been for men from professional or managerial backgrounds (up 13%, from 56% to 69%), whilst for women this category has increased the least (9%, from 46% to 55%).

Childlessness by Educational Attainment, Early Thirties (%) This chart compares childlessness by educational attainment amongst cohort members in their early 30s (age 33 for the 1958 cohort and 30 for the 1970). Recent decades have seen a massive expansion in post-secondary education, with young adults spending an increasing proportion of time in education; previous analysis of the cohort studies shows that, whereas for the 1958 cohort the majority (over 60%) of young people left school at 16, in 1986, this had declined to less than half of those born in 1970 (54% of males, and 45% of females) (Makepeace et al, 2003). There is much attention on increases in women’s educational attainment in particular in the literature. However, as Makepeace et al (2003) observe, this broad observation does not address continuing large differences by gender in subjects studied; in addition, the gap in the chances of gaining tertiary qualifications for those from the highest and lowest social classes has widened over time. Differences by educational attainment are significant for both men and women. Looking at women born in 1958, the proportions of those with tertiary education (37%) is nearly three times that for those without qualifications (13%). Looking at changes over time however, there has been a larger increase in the proportions of men with tertiary qualifications who remain childless (up 37%, from 41% to 78%) compared with women in the same educational category (up 31%, from 37% to 68%). This suggests the need to consider the role of education on delaying family formation for both women and men.

Current Economic Activity by Parental Status Significant differences amongst women by parental status: the vast majority of childless women born in 1958 were in full-time employment, 82% compared to 22% of mothers. The picture for men was very different however, with a slightly higher proportion of fathers (90% compared with 88%) working full-time. Thus, men are overwhelmingly in full-time employment, regardless of parental status. Looking at the 1970 cohort indicates very little change over time (80% of childless women worked full-time compared with 22% of mothers). The figures for men had also not changed, with 88% of fathers and childless men working full-time. Childless women from both cohorts are less likely than fathers of the same age to be working full-time, and more likely to be categorised as either working part-time or looking after home and family (over 12%) than fathers (less than 3% in both cohorts). [No graphics here!] There has been much debate in the literature over the role of women’s employment in relation to fertility decline, and conflict between career aspirations and motherhood, with suggestions that birth timing and spacing may be key strategies adopted to balance work and family responsibilities. Analysis of the cohorts shows the proportion of all women working fulltime has increased significantly, from 36% to 51% between cohorts. Some commentators propose women’s increased labour force participation in recent decades as an indicator of increasing gender equality; such claims however do not address factors such as hours of work or levels of pay. Previous analysis of the 1970 cohort (Makepeace et al., 2003) finds differences by sex in the proportions of men and women who experienced continuous employment between ages 16 to 30, 30% compared to 14% respectively. The figures presented here show the differential impact parenthood has on men and women’s economic activity, with fatherhood having little impact on the likelihood of working fulltime. Other research (Kiernan, 1998) indicates that British men have the highest average number of working hours compared with other men in the European Union, while British fathers work longer hours on average than men without dependent children. The figures comparing the economic activity of childless women with fathers of the same age suggest a lack of change in the retention of caring responsibilities by women compared with men, regardless of parental status. Differences between men and women in relation to economic activity, including between childless women and all men indicate the importance of gender over parental status in shaping work practices.

Childlessness by Partnership Status Considerable changes in patterns of family formation in recent decades include dramatic changes in partnership as well as parenthood. The proportion of men who remain never-married in their early thirties increased from a fifth (21%) of those born in 1958 to 57% born in 1970. The respective figures for women were 14% to 44%. While increased cohabitation accounts for some of this decline, other analyses of the cohort studies demonstrates there is also a rise in relationship dissolution; twice as many men and women born in 1970 have been in at least one previous relationship (Ferri et al, 2003). [No comment – read out slide?]

Childlessness by Partnership Status amongst Women 1958 Cohort 1970 Cohort The following slides illustrate differences in remaining childless by the partnership status of cohort members in their early 30s. The proportion of childless women born in 1958 ranges from 13% of currently married women to four-fifths (80%) of those never-married and currently single. 40% of those cohabiting at 33 are childless. The chart below looking at childlessness amongst women born in 1970 shows the delay in childbearing between the cohorts. While there is some lessening of differences by partnership status, there is still an a persistent association of childbearing with marriage.

Childlessness by Partnership Status amongst Men 1958 Cohort 1970 Cohort The differences for men from the 1958 cohort are even starker, 97% of never-married and currently single. men remain childless at 33 compared with 17% of married men. 50% of those cohabiting at 33 are childless. These figures do not tell us what these adults go on to do, that is whether there is a delay or overall decline in childbearing amongst the latest cohort. The persistent differences by partnership status suggest the pace of shifts in the context of childbearing (within marriage) lag behind shifts in partnership formation, a finding which has implications for future fertility patterns. These findings suggest the importance of research investigating changes in partnership formation as a precursor to fertility decline.

References Berrington, A. (2003) Change and Continuity in Family Formation among Young Adults in Britain, SSRC Working Paper A03/04, University of Southampton. Ferri, E. , Bynner, J. and Wadsworth, M. (eds.) (2003) Changing Britain, Changing Lives: Three Generations At The Turn Of The Century, London : Institute of Education, University of London Makepeace, G. Dolton, P., Woods, L., Joshi, H, and Galinda-Rueda, F. (2003) ‘From School to the Labour Market’ , in Ferri, E., Bynner, J. and Wadsworth, M. (eds.) Changing Britain, Changing Live, London: Institute of Education [References if useful]