Implications, adaptations & policies for economic development Presented by Johann Bell

Authors This presentation is based on Chapters 12 and 13 in the book Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD Bell, JE Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by SPC in 2011.

Where are we in the programme? Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions Ecosystems supporting fish Fish stocks/aquaculture species Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods Adaptations and policies to reduce threats and capitalise on opportunities

Outline Revisit changes in tuna distribution Implications for government revenue and GDP Framework for adaptations Win-win adaptations Supporting policies

Projected changes in skipjack tuna Future distributions of tuna are likely to resemble those during El Nino events today Skipjack tuna Source: Lehodey et al. (1997)

Projected changes in skipjack tuna Change in catch relative to 1980-2000 from SEAPODYM model 2000 East (15oN-20oS, 130oE-170oE) 2035 2050 2100 +35-40% +40-45% +25-30% West (15oN-15oS, 170oE-150oW) 2035 2050 2100 ~ +10% Negligible ~ -20% 2050 2050 Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)

Implications of altered skipjack catch General trends for Government revenue and GDP West East 2035 2050 2100 Negligible

Implications Countries with greatest dependency on tuna should receive additional benefits! Countries in the east could be in a stronger position to negotiate increased licence fees from DWFNs in the surface fishery

Implications Risks occur mainly in countries where tuna makes a relatively low contribution to economic development (due to the large size of their economies) but where tuna processing provides many jobs Countries in the west may need to source more fish for canning operations from outside their EEZs

Implications of altered skipjack catch Projected changes to gov’t revenue and GDP available in SPC Policy Brief 15 Copy of front page of Policy Brief 15 to be added

Caution! Preliminary results It is the trends that are important, not the percentage increase As models improve, estimated changes in catch will be more precise

Future distribution of bigeye tuna Change in catch relative to 1980-2000 from SEAPODYM model 2000 2000 East (15oN-20oS, 130oE-170oE) 2035 2050 2100 < + 5% -5% -20% 2050 West (15oN-15oS, 170oE-150oW) 2035 2050 2100 < - 5% -10% -30% Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)

Implications of altered bigeye catch General trends for national longline fishing and local processing opportunities West East 2035 2050 2100 Fiji 2035 2050 2100 +1 -1

Adaptations and policies Practical adaptations and policies are needed to: Harness the opportunities for increased revenue for countries in the east Reduce the risk of difficulties in supplying fish for canneries in the west (and job losses)

Adaptation decision framework Addresses climate change Long-term Loss Long-term Gain Lose-Lose X Lose-Win Win-Win x Near-term Loss Addresses present drivers Win-Lose Near-term Gain After Grafton (2010)

‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Adaptations L-W W-W L-L W-L ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Cap and trade provisions of VDS enable all PNA members to receive some benefits during ENSO events, regardless of where tuna are concentrated La Niña Ask El Niño Source of map: Lehodey et al. (1977)

‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Adaptations L-W W-W L-L W-L ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Allocation of vessel days is adjusted regularly Ask 2050 S 2100 Source: Bell et al. (2011) and Lehodey et al. (2011)

Adaptations Develop and maintain trade preferences L-W W-W L-L W-L Develop and maintain trade preferences Global sourcing provisions of EPA with EU assists countries obtain and export fish Helps ensure viable industries as tuna move east Another way of using the tuna resource that does not create any conflict with local fishermen is to provide Fish Aggregation Devices which attract schools of oceanic fish making them easier for small scale fishermen to find and catch them. These have been promoted in the region for many years. The problem is that they do not last for ever – they need to be maintained and replaced periodically. There a need for Government fisheries agencies to build this into their work programmes and budgets Photo: Peter Sharples

Adaptations Immediate conservation measures for tuna L-W W-W L-L W-L Immediate conservation measures for tuna Stopping overfishing of bigeye tuna, and preventing overfishing of other tuna, will: maintain stocks at healthy levels make these valuable species more resilient to climate change Bigeye tuna

Adaptations Energy audits for industrial fishing vessels L-W W-W L-L W-L Energy audits for industrial fishing vessels Addresses likelihood of near-term rises in fuel costs Assists national fleets from west to go greater distances in the future to catch fish for their canneries Another way of using the tuna resource that does not create any conflict with local fishermen is to provide Fish Aggregation Devices which attract schools of oceanic fish making them easier for small scale fishermen to find and catch them. These have been promoted in the region for many years. The problem is that they do not last for ever – they need to be maintained and replaced periodically. There a need for Government fisheries agencies to build this into their work programmes and budgets Photo: Bruno Leroy

Other adaptations Improve safety at sea for vessels fishing in the cyclone belt Climate-proof infrastructure to prevent inundation by rising sea levels and more severe cyclones

Suggested supporting policies Promote access agreements that are clear for all stakeholders; and strengthen national capacity to implement effort schemes Adjust tuna management plans to increase flexibility to sell tuna, or acquire tuna Include implications of climate change in management objectives of WCPFC Require tuna vessels to provide operational-level catch and effort data to improve tuna models

Suggested supporting policies Develop further measures to reduce capture of bigeye tuna by purse-seine Apply management measures to address the effects of climate change on tuna in archipelagic waters Develop tuna products and distribution channels that minimise CO2 emissions

Conclusions Win-win adaptations are available to reduce risks and capitalise on opportunities Supporting policies are required Integrate adaptations and policies into national strategies and action plans for climate change