Probabilistic Volatility in the Western Interconnection Matthew Elkins

A Theory on Relativity Matt 99 10,000 100 99

Definition of the Denominator Deterministic 99 25,000 24,999 ? Probabilistic

Applied to Electricity Expected Generation 25,000

Probability Distribution

Expected Margin Margin 25%

Reduced Margin

Reduced Margin Margin 5%

Probabilities

Reduced Margin

Independent Probability Vulnerabilities ~50% Independent Probability P(A) * P(B) ~50% X ~50% = ~25% MW

Risk Analysis

Increased Supply Variability Generation Outages Transmission Outages Fuel Adequacy Misoperations

Increased Risk

Increased Risk