Number of recorded murders per month, 1994-99

% individuals experiencing crime, by age (1997)

% of victims who knew the offender

Number of recorded assaults per month, 1994-99

Crime rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

Murder rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

Aggravated robbery rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

Rape rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

Burglary rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

Reasons for high crime levels & future scenarios Period of transition Cycles of violence Proliferation of firearms Organised crime Rapid urbanisation & income inequality Youthful population Weak criminal justice system

Conviction rate (all offences) per 100,000 of the population, 1995/96

Age distribution, South Africa (1996)

CJS Performance Cases recorded in 2000 2 575 617 Cases referred to court 609 928 (24%) Convictions: 211 762 (8%)

No. of SAPS officers and violent crimes, 1996-2000

No. of prosecutions, convictions, referrals and crimes recorded

Number of DCS personnel and prisoners, 1994-2000 Staff and cell accomm - reflects resources for DCS Prisoners - reflects Workload : Since 1995 the increase in the prison population has been much greater than the increase in the resources to hold and manage the prisoners. This in turn, will negatively effect performance of DCS - overcrowding impacts on the effective supervision, management and monitoring of prisoners.

Future crime scenario: Positive developments More effective criminal justice system, dependant on: Communication Credibility Capacity Focus of law enforcement & legislation on organised crime Transitional period ending Slowdown in urbanisation rate

Future crime scenario: Unknown Proliferation of firearms Firearms Control Act Developments in Angola and DRC Eastward NATO expansion

Future crime scenario: Negative developments Cycles of violence Changing age demographics Effect of HIV/AIDS epidemic

Number of AIDS orphans (millions) in SA, 1998-2010

Conclusion Decline of crime where impact of criminal justice system is strong Continued high level of crimes driven by ‘culture of violence’ Increase in certain crimes because of HIV/AIDS epidemic Greater state, private sector and civil society partnership needed

Thank you! Institute for Security Studies http://www.iss.co.za Sources used: Interpol SAPS CIAC www.saps.gov.za Stats SA national Victims of Crime Survey, 1999