An Analysis of Possibilities of Forecasting the AVISO Agrometeorological Model Input   Münster P. (munster@chmi.cz), Chuchma F. (filip.chuchma@chmi.cz), Hora P., Doleželová M., Knozová G., Hradil M., Kvapilová A. Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, Czech Republic   EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2017 4-8 September 2017, Dublin, Ireland

Agrometeorological Model Drought progression for up to 8 days OBJECTIVE IFS ECMWF data: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, total precipitation, global radiation Agrometeorological Model AVISO Drought progression for up to 8 days

A Little Bit of Analysing Stations Days Forecasts Parameters Years Data to proccess (+ global radiation) 198 * 245 * 8 * 4(5) * 2 = 3.104.640 (3.179.120) Term (00, 06, 12, 18) Daily mean Daily sum or Total Average deviation during the period Extreme deviation Frequency of deviation intervals Cumulative deviation Relationship with station elevation Relationships with type of weather Reliability of forecast advance

CONCLUSIONS In most cases values of mean daily temperature balance underestimated terms (12, 18) and overestimated terms (6, 24). Correction of systematic error = model point elevation differs from the real one, especially at higher elevations for air temperature and wind speed. Extreme errors are rare, but they are more frequent for the 6th and following days of forecast. Total precipitation extreme errors are usual for the specific type of weather => impossible to forecast totals accurately for the site. Global radiation is constantly underestimated at sunny days, more in summer. To get more accurate drought prediction, it suppose to be weather with no rain. On the other hand the qualitative information of reliability could be given while heavy precipitation in forecast are expected.