Managing Genetics in a Shifting Tide Vern Baron, Ph. D Managing Genetics in a Shifting Tide Vern Baron, Ph. D. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Lacombe, AB Thank-you for the opportunity to make this presentation. It is the result of a body of knowledge created and accumulated by AAFC and Alberta Agriculture and Forestry staff beginning in the 1990’s.

“Often, Variety Trial Entries Show Small Differences for Yield Compared to Controls” Glenn Friesen Not much difference in alfalfa yield among entries within a test. Not much difference in alfalfa yield over years, relative to ‘Beaver’. Expectations re: forage breeding programs?

“Often, Variety Trial Entries Show Small Differences for Yield Compared to Controls” Glenn Friesen “Yield improvement will be difficult to achieve if breeders are simultaneously maintaining and improving other traits” (Riday and Brummer, 2002). - yield, nutritive value, disease and insect resistance and persistence

Really it’s about forage breeding realities: Why is this so difficult? Just make the scientists do it! Really it’s about forage breeding realities: Reduction of heterosis due to recurrent selection for multiple traits or those other than yield (inbreeding depression). Cutting or grazing management to achieve greater forage quality means many cuts per year, lower yield and shorter longevity. Variety never expresses maximum DM yield.

Long Term Decline in Hay Yields Jefferson and Selles (2007) Over a 30-year period (1973 – 2003) average annual hay yield in Saskatchewan decreased from an average of 3.5 to 2.5 Mg ha -1 . 1 metric ton per ha or 0.5 ton per acre Hay yield decline over this period was also observed in all provinces from Quebec west to BC. More recent surveys and studies by BCRC has confirmed that the trend continues. “Hay Yields on the Farm”

Effect of Changing Temperature on Hay Yield in Saskatchewan Yield = 8.10 – 0.392 (Δtemperature), R2 = 0.29 Climate Change Involved Jefferson and Selles (2007)

Hay Yield in Saskatchewan vs. Fertilizer Price Index Yield = 4.62 – 0.0156 (Price Index) R2 = 0.38 Jefferson and Selles (2007) Producers don’t use Fertilizer-N on hay stands

Factors Responsible for Hay Yield Decline Jefferson and Selles (2007) Factor or Variable Proportion of the Variation Percent Fertilizer Price Index 38 Increasing Temperature (April to June) 24 Land and Buildings Value 7 Precipitation 4 Total 65 Response to increasing carbon dioxide concentration Stand age Species Composition and lack of rejuvenation.

Lost Forage Growing Area Reduces Forage Supply In the long term decreasing yield x fewer acres at lower yield = low winter feed supply Growing daily winter feeding cost > $3.00 cow-day There is a need for higher yielding forage stands

Tame and Seeded Pasture and Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixture Hay Area for Canada in 2016 and Lost Since 2011 2016 Lost since 2011 Loss (%) Acres (millions) Tame and seeded pasture 12.6 1.10 8 Alfalfa and alfalfa mixture hay 9.3 1.95 17 Total 21.9 3.05 12 Census Canada (2016) Implications: There is no forage surplus. A huge amount of soil carbon is being lost. For now, a shrinking market for varieties.

Adapting to and Managing the Growing Season in Different and Changing Environments and Systems

Using the Growing Season Effect of planting date on time of harvest for silage in central Alberta CORN 20, June 13, June 6, June 30, May 23, May 16, May 9, May Wapiti TRITICALE Murphy A.C. OAT Vivar BARLEY Lacombe A.C. Alfalfa cut 1 Alfalfa cut 2 Critical period Graze Grain Winter Cereal 24-April 22-May 19-June 17-July 14-August 11-September 9-October Harvest Date ■ Vegetative ■ Filling

Yield and Quality Curve of Alfalfa Low Lignin Quality Forage Quality Yield Within growing season with genetic transformation

3 vs 4 cutting by Sept 1 effect on alfalfa yield, Arlington, Wisconsin 1st cutting 2nd cutting 3rd cutting 4th cutting Season Total 2nd year 3 cut 2.97 2.43 2.15 ---- 7.55 4 cut 1.66 1.48 1.71 1.68 6.53 3rd year 2.32 1.53 1.24 5.09 1.31 1.18 0.75 0.83 4.07 17% 25% Varieties: 2555ML 3B21 5246 DK 127 MAGNUM III MULTIKING 1 NG-330 PROOF Conducted in 1994 1995 1996, only 1994 and 1995 data presented because one treatment lost in 1996 Within growing season with genetic transformation

Winter-Hardy Alfalfa vs. Yield Fall Dormancy = Winter hardiness? Dormancy = Low Regrowth yield Can we increase later cut yield or pasture regrowth by reducing dormancy?

Summary of Risk Factors Affecting Winter Survival for Alfalfa Acclimation Decreasing Day Length Cooler Temp Belanger et al. (2006)

Growing Season in Growing Degree Days vs. Latitude Across Canada Dormancy Occurs Earlier in the Fall as Latitude Increases Reduced Dormancy Increases Regrowth Yield 49.4 51.5 50.2 48.8 52.3 55.0

Alfalfa Winter-Kill at Locations Across Canada with Populations Adapted to Dormancy Regions 1 to 4

Improved Cold Tolerance Anik Caribou TF3 Improved Cold Tolerance Very Dormant Rhizoma FV Yellowhead Yellowhead D1 Reduced dormancy Old Stand Grown at 58 o L

Percent Winter-kill From Three Short-Season Locations in Spring 2018 Var. / Pop. Lacombe Swift Current, Normandin _____________Percent dead plants _____________ Beaver 13 6 7 Vernal 34 11 4 Caribou TF3 9 1 Rhizoma FV 5 2 Yellowh D1 Yellowhead Anik Bertrand, Claessens, Lajeunesse, Baron and Schellenberg

Alfalfa Regrowth yield from three short-season locations in 2018 Var. / Pop. Lacombe Swift Current, Normandin ____________________________kg ha-1____________________ Beaver 6462 1504 6954 Vernal 6405 1059 6494 Caribou TF3 6751 1325 7189 Rhizoma FV 6105 1143 7622 Yellowh D1 6640 1568 6977 Yellowhead 4828 678 2566 Anik 2534 1101 686 Bertrand, Claessens, Lajeunesse, Baron and Schellenberg

Normal and Reduced Dormancy Yellowhead at Lacombe Alberta Normal Yellowhead RD Yellowhead

Another reality: What will be used in 15 to 20 years? It takes a long time for variety development and testing. The market for the seed and the physical environment for the new variety will have changed from the time the cross is made. (20 years plus) Modelling farming systems affected by climate change

Projections for Alfalfa, Corn and Barley Silage DM Yields Estimated for Climate Change Scenarios for Central Alberta Dairy Farms Crop- Silage ___________________________Climatic Scenario_____________________ Now 2030 (Near-term) 2060 (Longer term) ______________________________________Mg ha-1________________________ Alfalfa 7.7 11.0 10.1 Corn 11.5 18.1 17.3 Barley 6.7 6.8 Thivierge et al. (2017) using the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM).

Summary Increasing yield through breeding new forage varieties is difficult. Decreasing yield in ‘on farm” hay production is due to past and current farm management decisions not failures in plant breeding. Agronomic and management research may enhance the value of new genetic transformations. Agronomic and crop physiology research may help indentify “bottlenecks’ within growing season production that can be used regionally and globally. Modelling future climates may assist in projecting phenotypic and genotypic plant types that can thrive in the future, regionally and globally.

Harvest Timing Based on 450 Degree Day Interval at & Locations Across Canada

Alfalfa

Hay Yield Trends in Saskatchewan Jefferson and Selles (2007) Yield = 104.5 – 0.051 R2 = 0.36

The Market for New Forage and Feed Varieties

What motivates producers to buy forage seed? Government “conservation” programs often motivate producers to buy forage seed.

Winter Feed Source Decrease 2011-2016 - 17% 1.95 million acres

1.1 million acres (-8 %)

Yield Curve of Alfalfa Yield Within growing season with genetic transformation

Yield and Quality Curve of Alfalfa Forage Quality Yield Within growing season with genetic transformation