Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of the strategic planning of a distributed contract-research organisation Raoul Klingner Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft

Fraunhofer - a distributed contract research org. Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer - a distributed contract research org. Development and size of Fraunhofer Number of Fraunhofer-Institutes Budget in million € 27 28 29 30 32 34 33 36 38 39 45 43 46 47 55 56 57 58 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Fraunhofer - a distributed contract research org. Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer - a distributed contract research org. R&D portfolio and planning corporate level facilitates corporate topics 6 alliances communicate common competencies 56 institute define strategies Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft Institute Alliance 1 Alliance 2 Alliance ... Information and Communication Technology Life Sciences Materials and Components Microelectronics Production Surface Technology and Photonics

Competition vs. Cooperation Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Competition vs. Cooperation New solutions happen at the interface of disciplines Technologies converge Corporate strategy has to manage and facilitate competition and cooperation of the Institutes Fraunhofer unique strategic strength is / will be the efficient and quick utilization of various competency combinations within one organisation © Fraunhofer IFAM Printed conductor paths connect a flow sensor (below) with the contacts on a circuit board (above) The novel micro-pump works in a similar way to the human esophagus © Fraunhofer IWM Artificially grown biological matrix © Fraunhofer IGB

Fraunhofer Future Topics Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer Future Topics Scope of »Fraunhofer Futures« Cooperation across the knowledge domains within Fraunhofer is initiated through innovative topics with economic and societal relevance A participative process inspires and taps the intellectual resources and creativity of all Fraunhofer employees in order to identify new topics especially suitable for Fraunhofer to be developed further Coordination within Fraunhofer Communication of the topics to the market and public Internal funding of key-projects to stimulate their development

Fraunhofer Future Topics Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer Future Topics Framework conditions of »Fraunhofer Futures« Broad acceptance Transparent process Societal need and challenge Bottom up idea generation Recurrent process (3 years cycle)

Fraunhofer Future Topics Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer Future Topics Criteria of »Fraunhofer Futures« Fundamental competencies in the topics are established, yet still distributed to individual Institutes Strategic fit - in terms of R&D portfolio as well as maturity of technology Competencies become concerted and aligned synergistically across the Institute groups Become the best in this field of applied R&D Topic granularity allows Fraunhofer its full scientific and technological coverage Topics validated by the research market Significant progress in a 3-5 year R&D perspective and a 5-10 year market perspective is realistic

Fraunhofer Future Topics Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer Future Topics Methodology of »Fraunhofer Futures« Analysis of foresight studies + 1st survey among researchers Analysis of various Foresight Studies Fraunhofer internal surveys Topic evaluation 2nd survey and rating among researchers and stakeholders 12 Future topics Ranking and clustering Selection process Advancement of topics Final workshops and roadmaps 2007 2008 2009 2010

Fraunhofer Future Topics Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer Future Topics Methodology of »Fraunhofer Futures« Analysis of foresight studies + 1st survey among researchers 1st survey: Fraunhofer scientists and executives of 56 Institutes, based on criteria  170 topic entries 2nd survey and rating among researchers and stakeholders Structuring of ideas in 13 technology areas with a total of 93 sub-themes for 2nd survey - ... 2nd survey among Fraunhofer scientists and executives + industrial advisory boards (#436)  Evaluation of topic entries  New topic suggestions Ranking and clustering - √ - abc Final workshops and roadmaps

Fraunhofer Future Topics Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer Future Topics Methodology of »Fraunhofer Futures« Analysis of foresight studies + 1st survey among researchers # yes/no of each topic  ranking comparison of panels discussion with experts clustering by generalists - √ - abc 2nd survey and rating among researchers and stakeholders Ranking and clustering Final workshops and roadmaps

Fraunhofer Future Topics Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer Future Topics Results: Macro Trends where do you expect answers from Fraunhofer ?

Fraunhofer Future Topics Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer Future Topics Results: 12 Fraunhofer Futures Topics Assisted personal health Food chain management Bio-functional surfaces Decentralized integrated water management Energy self-sufficient sensors and sensor networks Energy-efficient modernization of buildings Energy storage in power grids Green powertrain technologies Hybrid material structures Solid-state light sources Integrated localization technology Visual analytics

Fraunhofer Future Topics Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer Future Topics Discussion of process: "Processing" the topics

Fraunhofer Future Topics Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer Future Topics Discussion of process: Ranking and Clustering Quantitative and qualitative procedures Quantitative ranking of topics Analysis of rate of agreement of 2 panels Qualitative clustering by generalists Clustering along criteria and attributes Technology and market know-how + framework and scope Definition by expert groups

Fraunhofer Future Topics Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of Fraunhofer's strategic planning Fraunhofer Future Topics Conclusion FTA as part of the strategic planning of a specific organization has to follow distinct strategic framework criteria has to comply with existing structures to gain the necessary acceptance and support in implementation has to be based on a transparent process and quantifiable results subjective decision making has to take place to synthesize the process into a concise outcome  a system of checks and balances of qualitative methods relying on quantitative results is the necessary consequence