Using the Urban Dynamic Model to design transport investment to support city-regional development Tuesday, 07 May 2019 Steer Davies Gleave 28-32 Upper Ground London, SE1 9PD +44 (0)20 7910 5000 www.steerdaviesgleave.com

West Yorkshire 000’s Popul’n Jobs Leeds 758 450 Bradford 526 218 Kirkless 425 172 Wakefield 328 148 Calderdale 205 100 Total 2,242 1,088

Background City Deal agreement Combined Authority £1 billion West Yorkshire Transport Fund Deliverable within 10 years Primary objective of the Fund is to maximise an increase in employment and productivity Two criteria aimed at improved access to employment for poorer areas: A better than average improvement in employment accessibility for residents in the most deprived 25% of WY communities Every WY district to gain an average improvement in employment accessibility no less than half the average across WY No net increase in CO2

The Urban Dynamic Model A simulation of how an urban area – or an entire region - evolves over time, focusing especially on the interactions between: Transport Businesses & the local economy Population Land use Simulates how events change in small time increments Three months Long periods – up to 25 years in this case Views an urban area as a system with interactions and feedbacks

UDM Contents In each of 202 zones: Households and the workforce they bring Housing units Land built on and land available for new houses Employers and the jobs they bring Employer premises Land built on and land available for new employment premises Transport networks connecting the zones Highways (with congestion) Rail (with crowding) Bus Walk and cycle

Outputs available Households and workforce Jobs (‘posts’ and ‘jobs filled’) GVA Residents employed Travel to work matrices, by mode Accessible jobs Vehicle-kms and passenger-kms CO2 emissions User benefits

How does transport investment contribute to economic growth By improving the ability of employers to recruit By improving residents’ access to employment By improving B2B connections Retail is a special case And what limits that growth? Congestion and crowding on the transport system Rising fares and fuel costs Suitable premises for new employers, and the land to build them on The size of the workforce … the housing stock … the land to build them on

Background forecasts of economic growth The Yorkshire and Humber Regional Economic Model (REM) projects employment and population growth to 2026 by District But: It assumes transport costs are fixed This provides a means to benchmark the UDM

Creating a Baseline First the UDM was primed to deliver REM growth to 2026 While holding all transport times and costs fixed. Next the UDM was re-run while letting transport costs rise Congestion Crowding on rail Real fares and fuel costs And some costs to fall Primarily NGT This creates a shortfall in the number of jobs compared to REM of about 22,000. This is a benchmark for employment that can be ‘won back’ by transport investment

Impacts of changes in transport costs: West Yorkshire

Analysis of impacts: Jobs per Km2

Analysis of impacts: Residents in employment per Km2

Developing the Package Sixty schemes were identified and tested singly Schemes were ranked on ratio of GVA gain: capital cost Top 27 were selected to a capital cost of £1bn

The Whole Package Generated over 18,000 jobs Compared to 22,000 initial loss Put an extra 15,000 WY residents into employment Plus some inward commuting Generated GVA ~£1.2bn pa Conventional BCR of between 4:1 and 5:1

Some lessons The importance of land-use policy: Jobs and households have to go somewhere… Spatial effects can be complex: Shifting patterns of gainers and losers PT doesn’t necessarily reduce congestion It increases the total carrying capacity of the system CO2 reductions are difficult: mode shifts offset by increased employment & trip numbers. Job numbers were smaller than scheme promoters often seem to claim – but their associated GVA is still valuable The focus on employment and GVA still led to a conventionally good package:

Acknowledgement This work was carried out for West Yorkshire under the leadership of West Yorkshire PTE (Metro)

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