NATIONAL HUMAN CAPITAL FOR SCIENCE, ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY PLAN PRESENTATION TO THE PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 06 MARCH 2007 THE YEAR OF THE HUMAN CAPITAL 29-Apr-19

World Development Report, 1999 For countries in the vanguard of the world economy, the balance between knowledge and resources has shifted so far towards the former that knowledge has become perhaps the most important factor determining the standard of living - more than land, than tools, than labour. Today's most technologically advanced economies are truly knowledge-based. World Development Report, 1999 29-Apr-19

Department of Trade and Industry, 1998) A knowledge-driven economy is one in which the generation and exploitation of knowledge play the predominant part in the creation of wealth" (United Kingdom Department of Trade and Industry, 1998) 29-Apr-19

KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY RESOURCE-BASED ECONOMY TRANSFORMATION KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY RESOURCE-BASED ECONOMY 29-Apr-19

KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY Knowledge is the basic form of capital Knowledge generation, accumulation and exploitation: Innovation Economic growth is driven by Innovation Key driver for Innovation is “high-end” human capital: Ph.D Ph.D as the key foundation for achieving the objectives of the National System of Innovation 29-Apr-19

KEY CHALLENGES Increase the number of knowledge workers: Researchers Increase the productivity of researchers Address inequalities: Race, gender, regional & institutional distribution 29-Apr-19

KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMIES 29-Apr-19

PhD's in S&E per 1 000 in the age group 25-34 (2000) 29-Apr-19

Doctoral enrolments and graduations (2000 – 2005) 29-Apr-19

Doctoral graduates by gender (2000 – 2005) 29-Apr-19

PhD graduates - Years to completion (All fields: 2000 - 2005) 29-Apr-19

Years to completion by field (2000 – 2005) 29-Apr-19

RESEARCH OUTPUT… Scientific Journals 29-Apr-19

RESEARCH OUTPUT… Field of Study 29-Apr-19

RESEARCH OUTPUT… International Comparison 29-Apr-19

RESEARCH OUTPUT…Patents 29-Apr-19

RESEARCH OUTPUT…Patents 29-Apr-19

20 YR STRATEGIC DESTINATION… Addressing Key Challenges Number of Researchers with Ph.D 1200 Ph.D/yr – 6,000 to 12,000 Ph.D/yr (Total) 561 Ph.D/yr - 3,000 to 6,000 Ph.D/yr (SET) Proportion of articles in Scientific Journals 0.5% to 3-5%? PCT ~ 350/year – 2,100 to 3,500/year 29-Apr-19

KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMIES 10.1% 45.3% 4.5% 19.0% 6.2% 27.0% 5.6% 17.1% 113.5% 355.6% 13.7% 66.8% 6.1% 19.2% 0.0% 0.1% 29-Apr-19

STRATEGIC POSITIONING IN WHICH LEAGUE DO WE WANT TO PLAY? South Africa In 2026 (20 yrs) A 5 x increase to present situation Country Factor China?? X 0.34 India?? X 0.44 Brazil X 1.9 Taiwan X 2.3 Japan X 4.9 USA X 6.1 South Korea X 6.8 UK X 8.2 Australia X 9.7 South Africa In 2026 (20yrs) A 10 x increase to future situation 29-Apr-19

POINTS OF LEVERAGE FROM CURRENT SITUATION < 10% proceed from a basic degree to pursue honours 2. Only 19% proceed from Maters to Doctoral studies 1 2 HG Maths and Science ~ per yr Existing National SET pipeline (2005) SET graduation rates ~per yr Hons grad rates~ per yr Masters ~ per yr (incl. coursework) PhD’s ~ per yr 26,000 33,500 3,200 2,900 561 29-Apr-19

The Ph.D Pipeline…All Disciplines: (Catching up with current levels) Existing National HC pipeline (2005) Senior certificate with endorsement HE graduation rates ~per yr Hons grad rates~ per yr Masters ~ per yr (incl. coursework) PhD’s ~ per yr 86,500 120,400 23,000 8,000 1,200 Strategic Destination 432,500 602,000 115,000 40,000 6,000 Required National and HC pipeline (2025) X 5.0 increase Senior certificate with endorsement ~ per year HE graduation rates ~ per year Hons graduation rates ~ per year Masters graduation rates ~ per year PhD’s per year 29-Apr-19

The Ph.D Pipeline…All Disciplines (Keeping up competitively Scenario) Existing National HC pipeline (2005) Senior certificate with endorsement HE graduation rates ~per yr Hons grad rates~ per yr Masters ~ per yr (incl. coursework) PhD’s ~ per yr 86,500 120,400 23,000 8,000 1,200 Strategic Destination Required National and HC pipeline (2025) X 10 increase Senior certificate with endorsement ~ per year HE graduation rates ~ per year Hons graduation rates ~ per year Masters graduation rates ~ per year PhD’s per year 865,000 1,204,000 230,000 80,000 12,000 29-Apr-19

Strategic Destination The Science, Engineering and Technology Ph.D Pipeline… (Catching up with current levels) 26,000 33,500 3,200 2,900 561 Existing National SET pipeline (2005) Masters ~ per yr (incl. coursework) Hons grad rates~ per yr PhD’s ~ per yr HG Maths and Science ~ per yr SET graduation rates ~per yr Strategic Destination Required National and SET target pipeline (2025) X 5.0 increase Senior certificate with HG Maths and Science ~ per year HE SET graduation rates ~ per year Hons graduation rates ~ per year Masters graduation rates ~ per year PhD’s per year 130,000 167,000 16,000 14,500 2,805 SET Ph.Ds Produced = 50% Total Ph.D Production! 29-Apr-19

Strategic Destination The Science, Engineering and Technology Ph.D Pipeline: (Keeping up competitively Scenario) HG Maths and Science ~ per yr Existing National SET pipeline (2005) SET graduation rates ~per yr Hons grad rates~ per yr Masters ~ per yr (incl. coursework) PhD’s ~ per yr 26,000 33,500 3,200 2,900 561 Strategic Destination 260,000 335,000 32,000 29,000 5,610 Required National and SET target pipeline (2025) X 10 increase Senior certificate with HG Maths and Science ~ per year HE SET graduation rates ~ per year Hons graduation rates ~ per year Masters graduation rates ~ per year PhD’s per year 29-Apr-19 SET Ph.Ds Produced = ~50% Total Ph.D Production!

INTERVENTIONS Increasing access to M + D study – comparative funding levels 3rd YR to Honours transition Opportunities for post-doctoral fellowships Beef-up Current programs: South African Research Chairs Initiative Professional Development program Post-doctoral Fellowship program International Ph.D training program New research areas Leverage external capacity International visiting Research Chairs 29-Apr-19

MONITORING AND EVALUATION Key indicators No and throughput of SET graduates per annum No and throughput of SET Masters graduates per annum No and throughput of SET Ph.D graduates per annum Women and blacks as percentage of total researchers Global share of research outputs R & D spending as % of GDP 29-Apr-19

ISSUES TO INTERROGATE Distribution of scientists, engineers and technologists Distribution of natural and physical sciences and Human/Social sciences Nature of the disciplines in SET: National R&D Strategy 10 Year Plan for the S&T System Consultation with engineering and scientific communities/associations Foresight studies and technology road maps Mega projects and Challenges Competitive funding/stipends at post- graduate level including post-doctoral research 29-Apr-19

TIMELINES…2007 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Strong partnership with NRF and DoE from the onset Feb Mar Apr May Jun Draft SET HC Strategy/Plan Internal Discussions on the draft and strategic issues Consultation with Science Councils Consultation with HEI, HESA, Engineering Council, NACI Final Draft 29-Apr-19

THANK YOU 29-Apr-19