CAFE Steering Group 28 February 2007

CAFE Steering Group Compliance 28 February 2007 Agenda item 2 Compliance

Compliance with emission ceilings Most of 2010 emissions are projected to be in compliance with ceilings. However - based on Member States own projections - possible difficulties in complying as follows: SO2: With measures: Netherlands NOx: With measures: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Slovenia Without measures: Germany, Hungary, Italy, Sweden VOC: With measures: Denmark, Portugal Without measures: Poland NH3: Without measures: Germany Note: Commission has not received projections for 2010 from Bulgaria, Czech Republic, France, Greece, Ireland, Romania, Spain. MS in italics are projected to be less than 5 percent above ceiling.

Conclusions - Without prejudice to how the Commission may act - National Programmes If National Programmes have not been drawn up and sent to the Commission, the Commission acts. Further action depends on contents. National emission ceilings Confirmed in 2013 (verified 2010 emissions) Consequences of non-compliance Commission action based on articles 226 and 228 Letter of formal notice, reply from Member State Reasoned opinion, response from Member State Commission may bring the matter to the Court of Justice Possible Member State action based on article 227 The Court may decide that the Member State has to pay a lump-sum and a penalty payment for continuation of the infringement.

Legal options for revising the NECD CAFE Steering Group 28 February 2007 Agenda item 4 Legal options for revising the NECD

Introduction Review obligations in 2001/81/EC are de facto fulfilled by Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution Revision NECD announced in Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution Co-decision procedure

Legal options Regulation or Directive If Directive, three variants: Amend existing directive Merge existing directive with new 2020-provisions Stand-alone directive with sunset clause(s)

Pros and cons of options Regulation or Stand-alone directive Legally clear Regulation requires no transposition Pro: better regulation, simplicity) Con: no discussion on implementing provisions in MS Amend existing Directive Would have two directives in force at the same time Would require codification later

Time table for revision of the NECD Agenda item 5 CAFE Steering Group 28 February 2007

Further work Key scenarios and most technical work ready by end of March: Updated baselines Central scenario which meets the objectives of the Thematic Strategy Other levels of ambition Sensitivity analysis Some additional technical work following NEC-PI of 29-30 March in April. Other work: Legislative proposal + explanatory memorandum Impact Assessment Start Inter-service: 13 June 2007

Consultations 1 November 2005 1st NEC-PI Working Group &file 07/05/2019 Consultations 1 November 2005 1st NEC-PI Working Group 1 February 2006 2nd NEC-PI Working Group 15 March 2006 3d NEC-PI Working Group 2 May 2006 CAFE Steering Group 12-13 July 2006 4th NEC-PI Working Group 29 August 2006 Conference on Air Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections for 2020. 18-19 December 2007 5th NEC-PI Working Group 28 February 2007 CAFE Steering Group

Remaining consultations &file 07/05/2019 Remaining consultations 29-30 March 2007 6th NEC-PI Working Group (IIASA,Vienna) 29 May 2007 7th NEC-PI Working Group (Brussels) Start Inter-service: 13 June 2007

Co-decision procedure by Council and European Parliament &file 07/05/2019 Co-decision procedure by Council and European Parliament First guess of the time frame: First reading and Common Position 2007-08 Start second half of 2007 (Portugal) Finish beginning 2008 (Slovenia) If no first reading agreement 2nd reading 2008-09 Start second reading late 2008 or beginning 2009 Finish second reading before Parliament and Commission change mid 2009 Publication Official Journal in 2008 or 2009 Entry into force 2008 or 2009

CAFE Steering Group National Programmes 28 February 2007 Agenda item 6.1 National Programmes

National Programmes 2006 Analysis of all EU 25 Programmes to check compliance with requirements In-depth analysis of selected Programmes Interim-report for Commission in April to ensure that experience in National Programmes is carried forward to revised NECD Workshop with Member States Final report

National Programmes in the future National Programmes are useful for Member States and Commission In 2010, a Programme needed to ensure compliance in 2020 based on clear guidelines and criteria set by comitology Programmes need to be internally consistent, as well as with other plans and programmes Programming of Greenhouse gas reductions particularly relevant Update in about four years seems appropriate in particular projection is above ceiling Reporting Programmes to both Commission and EEA

Three options based on existing approach As currently As currently, but with acceptance by the Commission As currently, but updated only if: emission projection above 2020 ceiling emissions above “gliding path” between 2010 and 2020

CAFE Steering Group Types of ceilings 28 February 2007 Agenda item 6.2 Types of ceilings

Types of ceilings for 2020 For SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 in kilotons For PM2.5 as a percentage of emissions in 2000 Converted to kilotons once emission inventory is reliable Transparent mechanism for correcting significant discrepancies, if emission factors change or if new sources found Possibly, [three] year moving average after 2020

CAFE Steering Group Gliding path 28 February 2007 Agenda item 6.3 Gliding path

“Gliding path” Purpose: Monitor progress Incentive for early action How to achieve: Measure emissions in year 201x against the gliding path; or Measure average emissions in year 201x and two preceding years against the gliding path.

Gliding path - illustration

If above gliding path… possible consequences Update National Programme Consider market based or other instruments Non-compliance

If below gliding path… possible consequences Carry over the overcompliance within three year average Addresses annual variation of emissions Possibly, carry over “credit for early action” after a specific year e.g. 2015

Flexibility of ceilings across Member States CAFE Steering Group 28 February 2007 Agenda item 6.5 Flexibility of ceilings across Member States

Flexibility among Member States Issue: cross border emission reduction not recognised under current NECD Emission trading between installations of two Member States difficult Member States’ borders = not necessarily optimal control areas First study for the Commission concluded: For SO2 2-3 optimal control areas might emerge: one in the Northern part of Europe, one in the Southern part and a third in between For NOx zones would depend on effect analyzed. If acidification, eutrophication and ground level ozone equally weighted, the EU as a whole could be one Optimal Control Area. Further study on environmental, health and costs for several multi-country bubbles is ongoing

Possible use of Optimal Control Areas Member States within same zone could: decide to have a common bubble (which could not be exceeded) allow companies to trade emissions across national borders Possibly combine with a “buying restriction” of x% to ensure environmental integrity

CAFE Steering Group Fuels used / fuels sold 28 February 2007 Agenda item 6.5 Fuels used / fuels sold

Conclusions Method for setting ceilings and calculating national emissions should be based on same principle For revised NECD the method of ‘fuels sold’ is the basis, thus reporting for compliance should be based on ‘fuels sold’ as well For other reasons than compliance reporting emissions on the basis of ‘fuels used’ could be useful

Application of Market Based Instruments in Member States CAFE Steering Group 28 February 2007 Agenda item 8 Application of Market Based Instruments in Member States

Market based instruments Presentations by: Norway France Netherlands Sweden Switzerland Slovakia Denmark

CAFE Steering Group Meeting close 28 February 2007 Meeting close