EMEP case study on heavy metal pollution assessment: Current progress and further activities Ilia Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Olga Rozovskaya, Marina Varygina EMEP/MSC-E Название уточнить! EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Outline Overview of the case study Current progress and further activities Draft work plan EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Annual EMEP information produced for countries Overview of the case study Annual EMEP information produced for countries Cd depos., 2007 Factors affecting quality of the pollution assessment: Uncertainties of modelling - spatial resolution - model parameterizations - input data ……………… Czech Rep, Cd transboundary transport Uncertainties of monitoring data - network density - data quality - representativeness of station ………….. Uncertainties of emission data: - completeness - spatial distribution - temporal variability - local sources EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

EMEP case study on HM pollution assessment under TFMM Overview of the case study EMEP case study on HM pollution assessment under TFMM Main purpose: An integrated analysis of factors affecting quality of the assessment of heavy metal pollution levels using variety of available information (detailed emissions, monitoring and modelling). Expected output: Detailed assessment of pollution levels in individual countries with high resolution (5 x 5 km, 10 x 10 km) Recommendations to further improvements of pollution assessment components (quality of emissions, model parameterizations, quality and representativeness of monitoring data etc.. ) Participants: EMEP Centres, national experts, WGE EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Atmospheric modelling Improved assessment of pollution levels Overview of the case study General scheme of the case study Emission data Meteo and geophys. Monitoring data Atmospheric modelling Improvements Analysis of results; Recommendations Improved assessment of pollution levels EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Work packages of the case study Overview of the case study Work packages of the case study WP1. Emission data preparation for modelling and analysis WP2. Collection and analysis of monitoring data WP3. Preparation of input geophysical and meteorological data for modelling and modification of the model WP4. Atmospheric modelling WP5. Complex analysis of results and improvements of assessment system (modeling, monitoring, emissions) WP6. Improved model assessment of pollution levels in a country The content of each Work Package may differ for each participating country EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

EMEP/MSC-E HM modeling system Overview of the case study EMEP/MSC-E HM modeling system Czech Rep. Local model (MSCE-HM) Coverage – selected countries Resolution – 10×10 km2 Global model (GLEMOS) Coverage – global Resolution – 1°×1° Regional model (MSCE-HM) Coverage – EMEP region Resolution – 50×50 km2 EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Current progress of the case study (since November, 2009) 1. Questionnaires about availability of country-specific data were distributed among EMEP countries a) Basic data (minimum to start the case study) b) Additional data (for more detailed assessment) 2. Six countries (Czech Rep, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Croatia, Slovakia) expressed their wish to take part in the case study and started providing the data EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Current progress of the case study 3. Detailed time table and working programme was developed for the Czech Republic 4. Bi-lateral meeting between the Czech Republic and MSC-E took place in Moscow 5. Preliminary model calculations were done for the Czech Republic EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Moscow meeting of Czech Republic and MSC-E (14-16 April, 2010) Purpose: to discuss the input data, expected results, time table, etc... focusing on the country-specific data on emissions, measurements, land-cover, meteorological data, critical loads, concentrations in soils. Results Available monitoring data were presented by CZ and analysed Emission data from CZ are expected in the June Work plan for 2010 was developed EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Moscow meeting of Czech Republic and MSC-E (14-16 April, 2010) Results (cont…) Deliverables from MSC-E were agreed List of experts from the CZ in the field of emissions, land-cover, critical loads, meteorology, was submitted Procedure of joint analysis of case study results was discussed Next meeting - Autumn, 2010 EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Metals of interest Czech Republic Cd, Hg, As Netherlands Pb, Cd, Hg Croatia Italy Pb, Cd, Hg, As Spain Slovakia Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Ni, Zn, Cr, Cu EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

+ WP1: Emission data preparation for modelling and analysis - Purpose: to analyze the effect of finer resolution on modeling results; to provide a country with more detailed assessment Purpose: to assess contributions of different emission source categories on pollution levels Type of emission data CZ NL HR ES IT SK Gridded, 50x50 km + Gridded, finer resolution (5-10 km) - Source category data Large point source data ? Detailed temporal resolution Future emission scenarios Purpose: to evaluate contribution of LPS to overall pollution levels Purpose: to evaluate the effect of short-term temporal changes of emissions on the model performance EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Emission in Croatia, Pb, 2007 Total: 11 tonnes WP1: Emissions Total emissions, 10 x 10 km2 Contributions of source categories EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

WP2. Collection and analysis of monitoring data Purpose: to increase monitoring set for the analysis Type of monitoring data CZ NL HR ES IT SK EMEP data + - Data from national networks planned Station's location characteristics (partly) ? Meteo. data at stations (precip) Supplementary measurement data Field campaigns Purpose: to check the represenativeness of station Purpose: Wind data - to trace the influence of local sources. Precip. data - for evaluation of wet deposition fluxes - Dry deposition measurements - Measurements at different heights - Filling gaps in measurement network Concentrations in mosses; throughfall EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Measurements of Cd wet deposition in the Czech Republic in 2007 WP2. Monitoring data Measurement data provided by participating countries National network: ~30 stations EMEP: 2 stations Measurements of Cd wet deposition in the Czech Republic in 2007 EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

WP3. Input geophysical and meteorological data for modelling Purpose: to evaluate wind re-suspension flux of HMs Type geophys. data CZ NL HR ES IT SK Land-cover information + ? - Concentrations of HMs in topsoils and re-suspension of dust Critical loads Meteorological obs. data Purpose: to calculate exceedances of critical loads with help of WGE Purpose: verification of meteorological data generated by MSC-E; assimilation of national observations What other country-specific data can be relevant? EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Land cover data for the case study WP3. Geophys. and meteo. data Land cover data for the case study Czech Republic Crops, 50x50 km Crops, 10x10 km Source: MODIS, 30``x 30`` (~ 1x1 km), 17 categories National land-cover data are of high importance EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Concentrations of HMs in soils WP3. Geophys. and meteo. data Concentrations of HMs in soils Source: Europe-wide data of project FOREGS project (1998-2001) , www.gtk.fi/publ/foregsatlas/ Concentrations of Cd in soils in Czech Republic Original data Interpolation (10 x 10 km) Country-specific concentrations in soil are of high importance EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Meteorological data with fine resolution WP3. Geophys. and meteo. data Meteorological data with fine resolution Prepared for Czech Republic and Croatia Preprocessor: MM5 Annual mean air temperature (Czech Republic, 2007) 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km 5 x 5 km EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Comparison of modelled and observed precipitation amounts (CZ, 2007) Absolute bias (Pmod - Pobs) 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km 5 x 5 km Performance for the Czech Republic: 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km 5 x 5 km Rel. bias, % 13 -9 1 Abs. bias, mm 87 -65 7 Rcorr 61 80 89 EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

WP4. Atmospheric modeling Expected set of modelling exercises: Basic set of calculations Modelling over a country with current (50 x 50 km) and fine spatial resolution (e.g., 10 x 10 km) Source-receptor modelling for a country. Sources: neighbouring countries and admin. regions. Receptors: admin. regions and grid cells with stations. Contribution from the global sources estimated by GLEMOS model (for Hg) EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

WP4. Atmospheric modeling Expected set of modelling exercises: Additional calculations Pollution from different source categories Modelling with different temporal resolution of emissions Modelling with detailed vertical distribution of emissions Pollution levels from individual LPS Pollution levels from cities National models Future emission scenarios ………………. EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Preliminary modelling results WP4. Atmospheric modeling Preliminary modelling results Air concentrations of Cd in Czech Republic in 2007 (based on EMEP emissions re-gridded to 10 x 10 km grid) 50x50 km 10x10 km EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Total deposition of Cd in Czech Republic in 2007 WP4. Atmospheric modeling Total deposition of Cd in Czech Republic in 2007 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

WP5. Complex analysis of results 1. Comparison of modelled and measured levels and identification of discrepancies 2. Analysis of monitoring data 3. Analysis of discrepancies using back trajectories for selected grid cells and source-receptor results EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

WP5. Analysis of results 3. Analysis of discrepancies using back trajectories for selected grid cells and source-receptor results February, 25, 12 h February, 25, 18 h February, 25, 00 h February, 25, 06 h CZ3 Emission, g/km2/d Traj. height, m EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

WP5. Complex analysis of results 1. Comparison of modelled and measured levels and identification of discrepancies 2. Analysis of monitoring data 3. Analysis of discrepancies using back trajectories for selected grid cells and source-receptor results 4. Model parameterizations (vertical mixing, dry deposition, wet scavenging, ….) 5. Influence of different emission parameters (spatial resolution, temporal variability etc) 6. Comparison with the results of national models 7. Improvements of the pollution assessment system (model, emissions, monitoring ) EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

WP6. Improved model assessment of pollution levels in a country Pb deposition; reference year 50 x 50 km Calculated concentrations and deposition with high (10x10 km) spatial resolution Germany Residential combustion Contributions of administrative regions, cities and neighbouring countries to pollution levels CL exceedance (Pb, 2000) Pb deposition; scenario 1 Global scale (1º×1º) Selected area Pollution levels from Nickel smelter Contributions of global sources to country’s pollution levels (for Hg) Transport 10 x 10 km Contributions of source categories to pollution levels Pb deposition; scenario 2 Contributions of large point sources (incl. big cities) to pollution levels Critical loads exceedances maps Simulations based on national future emission scenarios EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Draft time table: - CZ; - HR, IT, NL, ES, SK 2010 2011 2012 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 Collection of input data from countries Transformation of data for input to the model Preparation of meteorological data Modification of the model Modelling Analysis of the modelling results Improvements of input data and the model New set of calculations, processing and analysis Report on the results of the case study Meetings Mar-Aug Aug – Oct Aug – Oct Sep – Oct Sep – Jan Oct – Mar Dec – Sep Feb – Nov Apr – Jun EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

Meetings and reporting about the progress Bi-lateral meeting between MSC-E and Czech Republic (Moscow, 14-16 April ) TFMM, Larnaca, 2010 Next bi-lateral meeting between MSC-E and Czech Republic: Autumn, 2010 Next reporting about the progress: SB meeting, September, 2010