Announcements Project- Make sure you email me the project report Grades- progress grades go out this week. Next week- Parent Teacher Conferences Weird Schedule

Quiz #4 P(male)= P(SUV)= P(Sports Car and male)= P(SUV \ male)= P(SUV or male)=

Greed 5 rounds Everyone stands Throw a die. This is your score. If you’re happy with that score, sit down and record this value as your score for the round If someone is still standing, keep rolling. If a 1 is rolled, anyone standing loses all their points for that round and sits.

Greed Round 1 2 3 4 5 Total Score

Greed Add your total to the stemplot Discuss strategies with your partner. Play again.

Greed Play one more game with two-dice Write down two strategies that give you the highest score

Greed One Die Strategies? Sample Space? P(getting a one)=? Two- Dice P(getting snake eyes)=?

Vocab Random Variable Probability Distribution

Apgar Scores P( healthy baby)= P( X > 3)= P(X = 2)= 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p(X) 0.001 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.012 0.020 0.038 0.099 0.319 0.437 0.053 P( healthy baby)= P( X > 3)= P(X = 2)= Healthy babies have a score btwn 7 and 10 APGAR- named for Dr. Apgar, also acronym for five scales: Appearance, Pulse, Grimace, Activity, and Respiration.

Roulette American roulette wheel Simple $1 bet on either red or black If ball lands in slot of that color, the player gets the original dollar back, plus an additional dollar for winning the bet. Otherwise, you lose. 38 slots 1-36, 0, 00. Half of 1-36 are red, black. 0 and 00 are green

Roulette Value -$1 $1 Probability

Expected value Multiply each possible value by its probability then adding them up Expected value= Law of large numbers

Apgar Scores What is the mean (expected value)? X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p(X) 0.001 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.012 0.020 0.038 0.099 0.319 0.437 0.053 What is the mean (expected value)? APGAR- named for Dr. Apgar, also acronym for five scales: Appearance, Pulse, Grimace, Activity, and Respiration.

Draw an Ace Draw cards until you get an Ace. Record how many cards you had to select. Do this 10 times Get Data from 4 other people (so 50 trials total)

Ace Put your data in List 1 Find expected value Graph (histogram) Describe the data (SOCS)

Spinning/Tossing Coin Spin 20 times and record the number of heads w/o putty Toss 20 times and record the number of heads w/o putty Spin 20 times and record the number of heads w/putty Toss 20 times and record the number of heads w/putty

Coin Combine your data with 4 other people Did the putty make a difference when tossing? If yes, in what direction? Did the putty make a difference when spinning? If yes, in what direction? Which was the most probable? Which was the least probable?

Birthdays There are 30 students in Austin’s precalculus class, all unrelated. He wants to bet you $1 that at least 2 students were born on the same day of the year. Should you take the bet?

Birthdays Probability model Birth date is equally likely to be any of the 365 days of the year (ignoring Feb 29th) The birth dates of different people are independent

Birthdays Describe how to use your calculator to simulate 30 random birthdays from the 365 possible days Carry out your simulation. Perform 20 repetitions. Combine your results with 3 other people. Should you take Austin’s bet? 2,1,0,2,2,1,3,1,1,1,4,0,3,2,0,2,0,0,2,2----- 15/20 (don’t add, just count how many instances)

“High-Low” Hi-Lo is a very simple card game. A dealer ("the house") starts with a deck of cards and turns over the top card. The player then guesses whether the next card in the deck will be higher or lower than that card. If the guess is correct, the player wins that round. If the guess is wrong, the house wins that round. If the two cards are equal, it's a tie: neither side wins or loses.

“High-Low” The best strategy allows the player to guess correctly more than 70% of the time. How do you go about finding that strategy? https://www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fair-projects/project-ideas/Math_p044/pure-mathematics/card-counting?from=Blog#background http://teaching.monster.com/training/articles/9164-high-or-low-a-game-of-probability