Institute for Security Studies Criminal Justice Monitoring Service Safety and Security Portfolio Committee 5 June 2002 Welcome to LAUNCH of service that ISS will be providing

Briefing outline Overview of latest crime trends in South Africa How the risk of becoming a victim of crime varies Causes of crime and likely future crime trends

Murder rates in selected countries, 1998 Interpol Minister said on Monday - “cannot be said that SA is world crime capital” - but murder most reliable stat to compare across countries - and SA still way above most others that report to Interpol.

Murder rate in selected cities, 1999, SAPS & UK Home Office

% crimes reported to the police, 1998 national victim survey

Number of recorded crimes, by category, Jan-Sept 1994-2001

Changing crime rates, Jan-Sep 1994-2001 SAPS angle is on ‘stabilisation’ - result of Crackdown (Ted to cover more) Is a dip in 2001 from 2000 - but increase from 97-2000 real concern.

Change in number of recorded crimes, Jan-Sep 1994-2001

Change in provincial murder rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

Change in provincial murder rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

Change in provincial murder rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

Change in provincial aggravated robbery rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

Change in provincial aggravated robbery rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

Change in provincial aggravated robbery rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

Change in provincial burglary rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

Change in provincial burglary rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

Change in provincial burglary rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

The risk of becoming a victim of crime varies according to: Income Age Social environment - acquaintances, friends & family Where you live & work Similar to other countries

% individuals experiencing crime, by age (1997)

% of victims who knew the offender

Number of recorded murders per month, 1994-99

Number of recorded assaults per month, 1994-99

Crime rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

Murder rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

Aggravated robbery rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

Rape rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

Burglary rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

WEST TOTAL - 68 Nyanga - 135 Langa - 131 Gug - 127 Hout Bay 63 Claremont - 22 Rondebosch - 6 White men - suicide

CT Burglary TOTAL - 1104 MOWBRAY - 5826 CLAREMONT - 3024 CAMPS BAY - 3012 CT CENTRAL - 2893 RONDEBOSCH - 2871 GUGS - 239 NYANGA - 301

Reasons for high crime levels & future scenarios Period of transition Cycles of violence Proliferation of firearms Organised crime Rapid urbanisation & income inequality Youthful population Weak criminal justice system

Conviction rate (all offences) per 100,000 of the population, 1995/96

Age distribution, South Africa (1996)

No. of SAPS officers and violent crimes, 1996-2000

No. of prosecutions, convictions, referrals and crimes recorded

Number of DCS personnel and prisoners, 1994-2000 Staff and cell accomm - reflects resources for DCS Prisoners - reflects Workload : Since 1995 the increase in the prison population has been much greater than the increase in the resources to hold and manage the prisoners. This in turn, will negatively effect performance of DCS - overcrowding impacts on the effective supervision, management and monitoring of prisoners.

Future crime scenario: Positive developments More effective criminal justice system, dependant on: Communication Credibility Capacity Focus of law enforcement & legislation on organised crime Transitional period ending Slowdown in urbanisation rate

Future crime scenario: Unknown Proliferation of firearms Firearms Control Act Developments in Angola and DRC Eastward NATO expansion

Future crime scenario: Negative developments Cycles of violence Changing age demographics Effect of HIV/AIDS epidemic

Number of AIDS orphans (millions) in SA, 1998-2010

Conclusion Decline of crime where impact of criminal justice system is strong Continued high level of crimes driven by ‘culture of violence’ Increase in certain crimes because of HIV/AIDS epidemic Greater state, private sector and civil society partnership needed

Thank you! Institute for Security Studies http://www.iss.co.za Sources used: Interpol SAPS CIAC www.saps.gov.za Stats SA national Victims of Crime Survey, 1999