contact: Kapros@central.ntua.gr Third stakeholder meeting on CAFE Baseline 30 April 2004 Issues related to the energy baseline Dr. L. Mantzos, M. Zeka-Paschou E3M-Lab at the National Technical University of Athens contact: Kapros@central.ntua.gr E3MLab - ICCS/NTUA

Key factors affecting the evolution of the energy system Base year (2000) statistics Model calibrated on the basis of these statistics EUROSTAT energy balances as available in end 2002 currently used Demographic and macroeconomic assumptions Population and households size GDP growth and structural changes of the economy International fuel prices Changes in the demand side Structural changes (e.g. industrial production by sector, transport activity) Changes in the fuel mix Power generation Nuclear policies Renewable energy forms Imports/exports of electricity

Base year (2000) statistics Comments received by many Member States Are the figures indicated the same as the latest version available in the New Cronos database of EUROSTAT? If not what approach should be retained? Revision of base year statistics implies the construction of a new baseline Time consuming process Suggested approach on dealing with the issue ICCS/NTUA can provide a template to be filled in by Member States with their own statistics A cross-checking against PRIMES data will be performed to identify the importance of differences ICCS/NTUA will consult with Commission services to decide the next steps

Comments on demographic and macroeconomic assumptions Demographic assumptions Sources used: New Cronos database, UN-HABITAT Allows for a consistent outlook Macroeconomic assumptions Scenario on GDP growth reflects a sustainable pathway for the European Economy and a gradual convergence of the EU economies Structural changes of the economy reflect current trends towards de-materialisation Suggested approach on dealing with the issue ICCS/NTUA will provide a template to be filled in by Member States with their own assumptions ICCS/NTUA will check differences in assumptions and their impacts both at the country specific levels and the EU wide level After consultation with Commission services new macroeconomic assumptions will be implemented in the revised baseline

International fuel prices World energy outlook (POLES model results) scenario constructed in the context of the LREM Framework contract assumes Continuation of current world energy market structures Conventional view on fossil fuel reserves / abundant resources in the horizon to 2030 It is suggested that a uniform scenario is used for world energy prices If required by Commission services a different international fuel prices scenario can be introduced in the analysis

Changes in the demand side Structural changes Need to be in line with the corresponding macroeconomic assumptions ICCS/NTUA will provide a template to be filled in by Member States with their own assumptions/projections (optional but useful for consistency reasons) Member states comments will be incorporated in the revised baseline scenario after consultation with Commission services Comparison to other studies (e.g. TREMOVE model baseline) is also envisaged Changes in the fuel mix ICCS/NTUA will try to identify the reasons for differences Different rates of penetration of electric appliances Infrastructure issues etc. The baseline will be revised to take into account the Member States comments

Power generation Nuclear policies Renewable energy forms Any revisions on nuclear phase-out policies will be incorporated Needs to be decided whether constraints will be introduced on nuclear capacity expansion or investment choices will be made on economic grounds Renewable energy forms Member States comments will be taken into account after consultation with Commission services The baseline does not assume the full implementation of the renewables directive It, however, incorporates all policies in place by the end of 2001 Electricity imports/exports Member States comments will be checked both at the country level and the EU wide level for consistency purposes The revised baseline will incorporate these comments to the extent possible It is suggested that all Member States provide their own projections on electricity imports and exports Changes in the fuel mix Comments will be taken into account after consultation with Commission services

What will be implemented in the revised baseline Base year (2000) statistics Time limitations do not make it feasible However, if revised energy balances are available within the next month a comparison can be prepared Possible implementation in the NEC directive revision Demographic and macroeconomic assumptions Feasible for the revised baseline Need to receive the template with assumptions until May 15 Consistency check at the EU wide level to be performed before implementation International fuel prices To remain unchanged Changes in the demand side Most of the comments on structural changes will be incorporated Effort will be made to accommodate for different projections as regards demand for fuels Power generation ICCS/NTUA will take into account comments in the revised baseline