The 2017/18 Crop Market Outlook: The Search for Higher Prices Northwest Iowa Research Farm Field Day Sutherland, Iowa July 12, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.9 Yield (bu./acre) 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 170.7 Production (mil. bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,255 Beg. Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,370 Imports 36 32 67 55 50 Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,940 16,675 Feed & Residual 5,040 5,280 5,120 5,425 5,475 Ethanol 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,450 5,500 Food, Seed, & Other 1,369 1,401 1,422 1,470 1,500 Exports 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,225 1,875 Total Use 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,570 14,350 Ending Stocks 2,325 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.35 3.30 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 89.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.1 Production (mil. bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,307 4,260 Beg. Stocks 141 92 191 197 410 Imports 72 33 24 25 Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,528 4,695 Crush 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,900 1,950 Seed & Residual 107 146 122 118 135 Exports 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,100 2,150 Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,118 4,235 Ending Stocks 460 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.50 9.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

National Corn Crop Ratings Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

National Soybean Crop Ratings Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

2-week Temperature Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC 6 6

2-week Precipitation Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC 7 7

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

U.S. Meat Trade Million pounds Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures 4.26 4.14 Source: CME Group, 7/11/2017

Current Soybean Futures 10.28 10.05 Source: CME Group, 7/11/2017

2017/18 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/