Vulnerability Profile of Shanghai Cooperation Region (SCO) Nawal Prakash Sr. Research Officer, NDMA, Govt. of India

In past decades, disasters have increased in number and intensity In past decades, disasters have increased in number and intensity. Humanitarian organizations have looked for approaches to prevent and to prepare for disasters. Therefore, it is required to target the main vulnerabilities.

Global Trends of Disasters Disasters are increasing in number. Hydro-Meteorological Disasters increasing due to Climate Change. Number of deaths have been arrested, economic losses mounting.

Global Trends of Natural Disasters (1900-2018) Increasing due to factors like – population, concentration of assets, climate change, urbanization, etc. Number of Disasters Year Source: EM-DAT

Number of Disasters per Disaster Type Global Disaster Situation (1900 – 2018) Increasing trend of hydro-meteorological disasters. Climate change induced extreme weather events. Number of Disasters per Disaster Type Year Source: EM-DAT

Global Disaster Losses (1900 – 2018) Economic losses Loss of human lives Economic Losses (in US $ Billion) Number of Deaths (in Thousand) Year Year Source: EM-DAT

China - India - Kazakhstan - Kyrgyzstan - Pakistan - Russia - Tajikistan - Uzbekistan All Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States see significant negative impacts from disasters due to natural hazards primarily earthquakes, floods, storm surge, winds and landslides earthquake flood storm landslide

Total disasters due to natural hazards (rapid onset: earthquake, flood, storm, landslides) Flood is the most recurring disaster in all member states followed by storms and earthquakes Data: http://emdat.be/

Country wise distribution of types of disasters due to natural hazards Data: http://emdat.be/

Total affected persons in SCO Member States (in millions : dead, injured, displaced, homeless) Floods and storms together also affect the most number of people in all member states 88 1843 432 3 Data: http://emdat.be/

Total mortality in SCO Member States (natural, rapid onset : earthquake, flood, storm, landslides) But ,earthquakes cause the highest mortality in all member states together 205,142 60,947 24,245 6582 Period: 1996-2015 Data: http://emdat.be/

Country wise distribution of mortality due to past disasters indicates the high proportion of lives lost relative to the occurrence of earthquakes Period: 1996-2015 Data: http://emdat.be/

Total Average Annual Losses in SCO Member States (in US$ mn due to rapid onset disasters : earthquake, flood, storm, landslides) Floods are projected to cause maximum losses. But, the losses due to earthquake remain significant due to uncertainty of occurrence and compound nature of the disaster Data: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015

Country wise distribution of Probabilistic Average Annual Loss due to disasters from natural hazards (US$ mn) Data: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015

More than 90% of those affected by disasters in SCO member states are affected by hydro‐meteorological disasters.

What leads to high level disaster risk? HAZARDS: almost all principal natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, cyclones, drought, and landslides EXPOSURE: Large, disproportionate concentration of people, capital assets and economic activity in hazard prone areas. This exposure is increasing! VULNERABILITY: Inherent vulnerability of the built environment, socio-economic systems, environmental concerns exacerbating risk

Four Priorities Seven Targets Understanding Disaster Risk; Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk; Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to “Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Four Priorities Seven Targets Reduce global disaster mortality Reduce the number of affected people globally Reduce direct disaster economic loss Reduce disaster damage to critical infrastructure Increase the number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies Enhance international cooperation to developing countries Increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments

None of the global targets, on reducing disaster losses and emergencies – whether they are enshrined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015‐2030 or Sustainable Development Goals – can be met by 2030 unless they are met by the SCO countries.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization represents about 40% of humanity and some of the world’s fastest growing economies.

What Needs to be done Reduce creation of new Risks; Mainstream Disaster Risk Reduction into Development Plans and Programmes; Invest in Risk Reduction and Early Warning Systems; and Establish more predictable mechanisms to support response and recovery.

Thanks!