Economic Update June 2017 Derek Harvey Senior Account Executive, Middle Markets

Summary & GDP 1st Qtr. GDP: +1.2% (Second Estimate) The Numbers: May Jobs Report (Wall Street Journal) 138,000: The economy added a net 138,000 jobs in May, down from recent trends but steady enough to chip away at unemployment. Meanwhile, job growth was far weaker in March and April than previously thought. The economy has created an average of 121,000 jobs over the past three months, roughly two- thirds of last year’s average monthly job growth. 4.3%: The unemployment rate fell a tenth of a percentage point to 4.3%, the lowest level since May 2001. However, the drop reflecting troubling trends. The labor force contracted sharply. The drop could suggest that the labor market is at or above full employment. Fed officials project the jobless rate will average 4.7% to 5% over the long run. 62.7%: The share of Americans holding jobs or actively looking for them fell two-tenths of a percentage point to 62.7%, just a tick above the level from a year ago and hovering near four-decade lows. In the most worrisome aspect of Friday’s report, the number of Americans in the labor force fell by 429,000. That suggests that many Americans in their prime working years remain on the sidelines, despite expectations they would rejoin the market as conditions improved. 2.5%: Private-sector workers saw their paychecks grow 2.5%, on average, in the year through May. That reflects consistent but hardly robust growth in Americans’ incomes. With inflation recently slowing, the growth in paychecks will give a real boost to the amount of money Americans have in their pockets to spend. 8.4%: A broader measure of unemployment fell to 8.4% in May from 8.6% in April. That rate—formally known as the “U-6″—counts not just unemployed workers in the labor force but also Americans too discouraged to enter the job search and part-time workers who would prefer to work full time. The rate has fallen more than a percentage point over the last year. Sources: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis

US Employment Situation Temp Penetration Rate: 2.06% unchanged Job Loss/Gain: +138,000 Jobs Unemployment Rate: 4.3% 0.1% I Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment Temp Employment Temporary help services Added 12,900 jobs. Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important? “Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth.” American Staffing Association Job Gains Change from   Previous Month Professional & Business Services 38,000 Leisure and Hospitality 31,000 Financial Activities 11,000 Construction Education & Health Services 47,000 - Healthcare 24,300 - Education 14,700 - Social Assistance 8,000 Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/Lost Private Sector 147,000 Government Sector -9,000 Total 138,000 Job Losses Change from   Previous Month Government -9,000 Retail Trade -6,100 Manufacturing -1,000 © 2015 CareerBuilder Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association

Projections, Trends & Wages GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) Unemployment Rate Projections Survey of Economist (Wall Street Journal) Out of Work (Alternative Measures of Unemployment) Alternate measures of the unemployment and under employment rate Getting Paid Wages, Change from a year earlier / Source: Wall Street Journal Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report, © 2017 CareerBuilder