WP1: Fire Statistics: Introduction and Status Oriol RIOS, CERN 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: WP1 Breakdown WP1: 3 main pillars: Gather data-> extract information 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: WP1 Package break down SUB-PACKAGE DESCRIPTION STATUS Involved RU WP1.1 Laboratory-wide overviews. Overview on fire incidents generated by each collaborating particle physics laboratory based on their individual databases. Where no or little data is present, please provide some on your regional fire department or service Data Collected* Processing ALL WP1.2 OECD study transfer Review of the OECD study in terms of transfer from nuclear plants to particle laboratories for the parts that could be applied to particle accelerator facilities, e.g. fire probabilities for technical supply rooms or similar Study Done Reporting ESS CERN WP1.3 Methodology of surveying and discussion Survey of methodologies, based on literature, guidelines or already implemented procedures; discussion and decision which one to employ towards a joint approach Gathered Discussion WP1.4 Shared approach on data collection and processing Collection of data sets from all collaborators, setup of and merge of data in one database, preliminary results and discussion Define DB structure CERN FNAL ESS MIV WP1.5 Draft report and final discussions Discussion and interpretation of the current results, wrap-up for final report on the deliverables ESS-PR-1 and MIV-PR-1. WP1.1: Data Collecting!. James Priest Talk on DOE 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

WP1.1 Laboratory-wide overviews. Data gathered and processing 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: Data Gathered RU Status Comments ESS not available FERMILAB Events by type FNAL 2012-2017 + and DOE Fire Loss 1991-2016 DESY Events by type 2011 -2015 Some FB reports MAX IV Some events: 2002-2014 CERN Some events: 1966-2018 Soon full FB reports MAX IV incomplete list Desy to provide more reports! They were working on it! 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

CERN. Reported Fire Events Costs? Source: CERN Fire Accidents: EDMS: 1753599/1 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: FERMILAB. From FB report (2012-2017) Natural Gas (leak, odour)  Near miss? Fire Source: FireRunReport2012-2017.xlsx Jim Niehoff and James Priest 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: FERMILAB. From FB report (2012-2017) Response Time: From alarm reported to FF at place. Manually reported 863 events FB Response Time Source: FireRunReport2012-2017.xlsx Jim Niehoff and James Priest 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

FERMILAB. Yearly Fire Loss Cost Causes? Equipment getting old? Change in reporting system? Source: DOE Fire Loss Reports. Jim Niehoff and James Priest 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

Histogram of Fire Loss Cost (1991-2017) Long-tail events Source: Jim Niehoff and James Priest 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

Cumulative Fire Loss Cost (1991-2017) Source: Jim Niehoff and James Priest 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: WP1.2 OECD study transfer 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: Study presented: EDMS No 1715222 v.1 Event tree structure Proposed Probabilistic method Example of application 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

WP1.3 Methodology of surveying and discussion 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

Different Methodologies presented Sweden National System Dadi, ITSF Hamburg 2016 ESS proposal. Fredrik Jorud. ESS 2016 James Priest talk in the following on DOE strategy CERN current methodology Marco Andreini, CERN 2015 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: Open Discussions WP1.3 Methodology of surveying WP1.4 Shared approach on data collection and processing 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

WP1 Deliverables CODE TITLE STATUS Principal RU MIV-PR-1.1 Approach  on  Fire  Statistics  for  Accelerator  Facilities MAX IV ESS-IO-1.1 Framework on fire statistics in accelerator facilities ESS RU: Research Unit 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

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WP2 – FRPAM Probabilistic Model for Manual Fire Fighting Time Marco Andreini – Oriol Rios – Art Arnalich 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

Probabilistic Model for Manual Fire Fighting Time Building on the general formulation in Gardoni et al (2002), the probabilistic models are written in the following form knockdown time from the model Where: x is a vector of material and geometric properties, HRR, etc. knockdown time from experimental tests is the set of unknown model parameters, is the model error in which σ is the standard deviation of the model error, ε is a random variable with zero mean and unit variance. Gardoni P, Der Kiureghian A, Mosalam K M. (2002). Probabilistic Capacity Models and Fragility Estimates for Reinforced Concrete Columns based on Experimental Observations. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 128(10), 1024–1038. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(2002)128:10(1024) 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

Manual Fire Fighting Time Model Where: is the limit for fire fighting is the parameter accounting for the “fire knockdown efficiency” is the instantaneous Heat Release Rate 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: Calibrated Model Posterior statistics determination Prior distribution Considering a non informative prior distribution for the parameter and referring to Box ad Tiao (1992), it is possible to proof that it is locally uniform, thus we obtain that while, following Gardoni et al. (2002a), for we adopt so that the prior distribution assumes the form We consider having mean = 20 MW and C.o.V. = 0.20 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: Calibrated Model Posterior statistics determination From Prior to Posterior Distribution Applying the Bayes theorem we have Where c is a normalizing factor equal to and L(Θ) is the likelihood function that can be expressed by 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: Calibrated Model Posterior statistics determination Importance sampling density Criterion for terminating simulation 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no: Calibrated Model Posterior statistics determination – Parallel CPUs Computing 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

Correlation Coefficients Calibrated Model Posterior statistics determination – Results θHRRcr [MW] θα [s] σ [s] Posterior Mean 23.658 168.468 0.234 Posterior SD 3.69 0.26 0.13 Correlation Coefficients θα 0.99 σ -0.07 20-Jun-17 O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

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