Session 2.4. Step 1: Formulating Assumptions TST WFP Markets Learning Programme Trader Survey Training

Learning Objectives By the end of this session, participants should be able to: Identify the key assumptions that must be formulated at the start of the trader survey design process (i.e. population characteristics, market & availability characteristics, potential shock impacts, and potential response options) WFP Markets Learning Programme Trader Survey Training

Nine Principles guide “The Four Step Approach” Step 1: Formulation of assumptions Step 2: Establishing field survey parameters Step 3: Elaboration of a survey plan, questionnaires and training Step 4: Supervision, analysis and reporting WFP Markets Learning Programme Conducting a Trader Survey

Trader Survey Training Step 1: Formulation of assumptions Step 1.b. Potential impacts of the shock Step 1.a. Step 1.d. Step 1.c. Population characteristics Market & availability characteristics Potential response options WFP Markets Learning Programme Trader Survey Training

Population characteristics Step 1.a. Population characteristics List the affected areas, population data and food insecurity levels: Describe the livelihood groups and activities: List the key items the households purchase and sell: WFP Markets Learning Programme Trader Survey Training

Market & Availability Characteristics Step 1.b. Market & Availability Characteristics Complete the table with deficit and surplus zones: Draw the cropping and marketing seasons, example: Elaborate (hand-drawn) maps of flows of the selected market chains Draw diagrams of selected market chains WFP Markets Learning Programme Trader Survey Training

Potential impacts of the shock Step 1.c. Potential impacts of the shock Describe the shock, describe the impact in table 5 On basis of table 3, select key market chains and predict impact of shock Table 7 – Note how main livelihood groups will react to shock & market chain impacts WFP Markets Learning Programme Trader Survey Training

Trader Survey Training Step 1.d. Potential response options With the Assessment Team: Discuss pros & cons of possible response options Identify potential information gaps that may need to be included in the survey e.g., knowing a voucher programme is a possibility, a visit to participating traders to assess their capacity to handle vouchers may be warranted WFP Markets Learning Programme Trader Survey Training

Exercise 2.4. Trade Rupture! Background: A natural disaster in a neighbouring country has lead to a full- stop of trade with this country (disregard other consequences). Our country is no longer able to import basic foods from neighbouring, food surplus- country; our exports to the neighbouring country have come to complete stop. Step 1.a. Population Characteristics: Which areas & livelihood groups will likely be made more food insecure by this shock? Step 1.b. Market & Availability Characteristics: Which areas are likely food deficit zones at this moment? Which are food surplus? Step 1.c. Potential Impacts of the Shock: Which market chains are likely most impacted by the rupture? WFP Markets Learning Programme Trader Survey Training

Trader Survey Training Wrap-up For all FS, nutrition or HH surveys, first step is to formulate assumptions” – assemble basic data via secondary data review and primary data collection Assumptions regarding population characteristics & relationship of HHs to markets essential for all analysis team members (HH survey and TS) TS basic data & assumptions include: population covered by FS analysis their FS status market functioning; relationships of HHs to market type & magnitude of the (expected) shock and impacts. possible response strategies (to identify key analysis concerns) WFP Markets Learning Programme Trader Survey Training