Twenty Years of the FIU Cuba Poll   The Cuban-American Transition: Demographic and Ideological Change in the Cuban-American Community Twenty Years of the FIU Cuba Poll

Cuba Poll 1997-2016 (N and Margin of Error)

Unrestricted Travel for All Americans

Continue Embargo

Sale of Food

Favor Selling Food and Medicine (by Poll Year)

The Issue of Travel to Cuba

Embargo and Diplomatic Relations (by Poll Year)

On Political Lag

Party Registration (By Poll Year)

Citizens (Eligible by Years of Arrival: 2016 Cuba Poll)

Citizens Registered to Vote (By Period of Arrival: 2016 Cuba Poll)

Political Party Registration (By Time of Departure: 2016 Cuba Poll)

The 2016 Vote: Does Trump owe Cubans the Florida Win?

Cuban-American voters accounted for approximately six percent (564,938) of the 9,415,638 Florida voters who cast a ballot for President. (Source: CNN, Florida Division of Elections. Retrieved: 11/13/16 at 3:47 PM. http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/FederalOffices/Presidential/)

Trump won the state by approximately 113,000 votes. Clinton won little under 50% of the Cuban-American vote (Pew Research Center). Let’s call it 44% to be conservative. (248,572) Even if Clinton had improved her performance by 10 percentage points among Cuban-Americans, (and received 54% of their vote) this would have gained her only an additional 62,143 votes. Well short of her deficit. Gary Johnson received 207,043. Might as well give him the credit. As FiveThirtyEight pointed out, “Cuban-Americans would have needed to vote for Hillary Clinton by an impossibly wide margin to swing the election her way, and Trump would have won the state if they hadn’t voted at all.”

Hillary Clinton improved on Obama’s numbers in Cuban precincts “Cubanos” (Trump won these areas 50% a 48%)

A Referendum on Obama Policies?

Support for new policies initiated by U. S Support for new policies initiated by U.S. government (2016 Cuba Polls) 44.0%  Strongly Favor 20.3%  Mostly Favor 9.8%  Mostly  Oppose 25.9%  Strongly  Strongly Favor 44.0% 38.2% Mostly Favor 20.3% 17.6% Mostly Oppose 9.8% 8.6% Strongly Oppose 25.9% 22.5% Don’t Know   6.5% No Response 5.2%

If election were held today… Clinton or Trump If election were held today… Clinton or Trump? (Asked only of registered voters-July 11-August 14, 2016) 32.9%  Clinton 37.4%  Trump 18.8%  Neither 11.0%   Undecided Clinton 31.4 Trump 35.5 Neither 17.8 Undecided 10.4 NA 5.2

Supporters of New Policies (by candidate preference)

Clinton/Trump voters on embargo

2016 FIU Cuba Poll View online at cri.fiu.edu Thank you!