Mobile Africa 2049: What role for applications? Mobility in Africa Foresight Workshop, June 1-2, 2010 Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev / World Bank

A brief history of typewriters Mobiles in 2010 = Typewriters in 1950: Current focus is on the device rather than the applications Typewriter first commercialized in US in 1870s – important innovations included the QWERTY keyboard, carbon paper, portability etc From 1960s onwards, computers began to be integrated into computers – a similar analogy would be the transition of mobiles into smartphones with addition of memory, IP capability, keyboards etc By 1980s, typewriters were transitioning to word processors – typewriters becoming keyboards on other devices like mobile is a communications capability for other devices By 2010s, typewriter keyboards are becoming invisible – the typewriter is now a device application than can be turned on when required

What lessons for mobile 2049? Mobiles in 2049 = Typewriters in 2010: Mobiles will be impossible to count because they appear in so many different forms The focus will be on the application not the device – Could we have imagined, in 1950, the uses of keyboards in 2010? Non-human mobile users will greatly outnumber human ones – machine to machine communications in an Internet of Things Usage costs will approach zero – Flat-rate, rather metered, pricing will be the norm within the next 10 years Everything over IP On-board mobiles communicate with similar devices in other vehicles for collision avoidance Mobile communication embedded into universal communicator device Navigation Mobile updates real-time traffic and weather conditions Mobiles report real- time vehicle data for automated carbon tax collection

Why are mobile applications so important for Africa today? Mobile already represents the largest delivery platform for development applications – e.g., M-Pesa in Kenya No adequate substitutes are available – mobiles outnumber PCs by >16:1 Low barriers to entry – Standard-based tools are available free of charge Market is highly segmented and localized – industry has not yet had its Google moment High export potential – compare with Indias success in offshore s/w development Growth of fixed and mobile connections in Africa, , in millions Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators Database.

Creating Sustainable Businesses in the Knowledge Economy A public-private partnership, launched on Dec Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Finland infoDev / World Bank Nokia Other partners include Mobile Monday, Korea ICT4D Fund, MCT Mozambique Three key areas of focus Agribusiness Mobile communications Innovation, SME creation and supporting technology entrepreneurs Three regions Africa Asia Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (ECA)

Track 1: Mobile Applications Regional Mobile applications laboratories Three labs to be established in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe Labs intended to develop between 8-10 mobile applications Possible Lab functions Training and accreditation Certification Competition for Ideas Replication of successful applications Mentoring of start-ups and SMEs (via incubators) Repository of knowledge and best practice cases Consumer behaviour research Facilitating access to finance / access to markets Mobile social networking Working with Mobile Monday to extend the model of an innovation network to extend the reach of mobile applications Launch of MoMo Kampala on 8 March Launch of MoMo Nairobi on 11 March Other planned launches in Mozambique and Tanzania

Creating Sustainable Businesses in the Knowledge Economy