Grain Price Forecasts and the Implications for Animal Agriculture 4th Egg Industry Center Issues Forum Denver, Colorado Apr. 11, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use ? 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 95.9 Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 164.0 Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,358 14,558 Beg. Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 801 Imports 14 8 28 20 15 Total Supply 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,506 15,374 Feed & Residual 5,182 5,125 4,793 4,600 5,200 Ethanol 3,709 4,591 5,021 5,000 4,950 Food, Seed, & Other 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,405 1,420 Exports 1,849 1,980 1,835 1,700 1,900 Total Use 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,705 13,470 Ending Stocks 1,616 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.20 5.00 ? Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 73.9 Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.5 43.9 Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,056 3,202 Beg. Stocks 205 138 151 215 250 Imports 13 15 14 Total Supply 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,286 3,467 Crush 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,630 1,660 Seed & Residual 106 110 130 116 126 Exports 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,290 1,550 Total Use 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,036 3,335 Ending Stocks Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.30 12.25 11.50 ? Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 3 3
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use ? 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.9 Yield (bu./acre) 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 Production (mil. bu.) 2,499 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,087 Beg. Stocks 306 657 976 862 793 Imports 127 119 97 120 Total Supply 2,932 2,993 3,279 2,982 3,100 Food 927 919 926 930 935 Seed 78 69 71 79 83 Feed & Residual 255 150 132 180 Exports 1,015 879 1,289 1,000 975 Total Use 2,275 2,018 2,417 2,189 2,173 Ending Stocks 937 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.78 4.87 5.70 7.30 6.30 ? Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 4 4
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6
World Wheat Production Source: USDA 7 7
Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 4/10/2012
Change of Export Pace
U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS
Current Futures Source: CME Group, 4/10/2012
Situation Facing Egg Producers in 2012 Higher feed prices for most of year Corn: $5.80-$6.60/bu in 2011/12 $5.18 in 2010/2011 Soybean meal: $290-$320/ton in 2011/12 $345 in 2010/2011 Feed prices should moderate moving into 2012/13 crop year Source: USDA-ERS
Egg Production Growth Slow * Forecast Source: USDA-ERS 13
Egg Prices Will Decline * Forecast Source: USDA-ERS 14
Planted Area for the 8 Majors Source: USDA-ERS
Corn Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS
Soybean Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS
Wheat Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS
Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS
Egg Stats for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS
Egg Stats for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/