Probability LG: To conduct chance experiments, identify and describe possible outcomes and recognise variation in results

…how likely something is… Probability is how likely something is to happen. You might also hear it called chance. Probability can be expressed as fractions, decimals or percentages, or on a probability scale.

What is Probability Probability or chance is how likely something is to happen: If something has a low probability, it is unlikely to happen. If something has a high probability, it is likely to happen.

Loving Likelihood Language!!! -Probability Line In small groups, order these words on a likelihood line! Note: You can place them in the same group (e.g. 100% is the same as Certain) Impossible Sure Always Not very likely Unlikely Maybe Less Likely Never No chance Very Likely 50/50 Absolute More Likely Either way 100% ZERO Equal Certain Definite

Probability Language Use these words to describe everyday events: The sun will rise tomorrow ___________ You will live to be 500. You spin a coin and get a head. You will see a bus on your way home. You will see an ambulance on your way home. Mr Strobel will shave his beard

Use probability language to describe the likelihood of: What are the chances? 1. 2. Event Probability? Picking a black ball   Picking a white ball Picking a dotty ball Event Probability? Picking a black ball   Picking a white ball Picking a dotty ball Extension: If I took out the 5 black balls, how likely would I be to pick a white or dotty ball? Extension: If I took out the 5 black balls, how likely would I be to pick a white or dotty ball?

Coin Toss Activity LG: To conduct a chance experiment

Dice Activity LG: To conduct a chance experiment

Car race game (play with a partner) LG: To conduct a chance experiment 12 cars are having a race. To move the cars roll two dice, find the total score and move that car forward 1 space. The first car to move four spaces is THE WINNER! I predict that car ___ will win the race because: Predict which is def going to win, which is definitely going to lose. Draw this table in your Math book 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Car race Which car won the most races? Which car didn’t win any races? Why are some cars more likely to win than others?