StatCap A new program for financing statistical capacity building

Overview Why statistical capacity building Why a new program StatCap How it differs? What will it finance? Who are eligible? How will it work? M&E Starting StatCap

Why statistical capacity building? Agreement around the Millennium Development Goals New emphasis on results expressed in the Monterrey consensus In countries PRSP process has increased demand for data Increased recognition of good statistics as element of good government Importance of international statistical system increasingly recognized A wide range of social, economic, demographic and environmental statistical data is needed to support the development process, to provide the evidence base for policy formulation, to support implementation, to monitor progress and to evaluate outcomes. A sophisticated international statistical system has been developed over the years to meet the needs of the development community, with a network of agencies compiling information and disseminating internationally comparable data. The quality of the output, however, is only as good as the source data, which originate from individual countries. Most of the data needed to monitor progress towards MDGs, for example, originate in national statistical systems, which must also provide data for national policy makers and the general public on a wide variety of topics. But the quality and availability of these data depend upon the capacity of institutions involved in national statistical systems, which are often undervalued and under-funded.

Why a new program? National statistical systems under pressure Under-investment and a vicious cycle of poor performance and inadequate resources Need to focus on both demand and supply Need for a long-term approach But focus on results and outputs Many national statistical systems are caught in a vicious cycle where inadequate resources restrain output and undermine the quality of statistics, while the poor quality of statistics leads to lower demand and hence fewer resources. Sustainable improvement in the statistical systems of developing countries – true capacity building – requires programs to increase both the demand for and the supply of statistics. In other words, there must be a break in the cycle, encouraging countries to develop the capacity to conduct sophisticated statistical activities reflecting their own agenda and to make better use of these data in managing their development programs. StatCap has been designed to address this situation by providing substantial resources for both investment and current operations, based on a country-owned and developed strategy.   The need for action now is driven by the new demands for statistical data from the preparation of poverty reduction strategies, from the need to monitor progress towards the MDGs and by the new emphasis on implementation and results, post-Monterrey. While the World Bank and other donors have invested in statistical activities for many years, much of this investment has been piecemeal, uncoordinated and short-term, often as a component of another program. It has tended to focus more on meeting immediate demands of key users, rather than sustainable capacity building. To address these issues, StatCap is designed to enable countries to make significant investments in statistical capacity, to both improve efficiency and effectiveness in the future and finance the most urgent current statistical activities. It will be implemented using the principles of agreed by PARIS21 - an international consortium, sponsored by the UN, OECD, the World Bank, the IMF and the European Commission - of country ownership and donor coordination, adopting a long-term strategy, based on individual country needs and taking into account local conditions.

How StatCap differs? A new WB lending multi-country program for statistical capacity building System wide or focused on particular areas An Adaptable Program Loan (APL), based on a sector wide approach National projects will be phases of the APL But projects may have several stages Designed to be a simple, user-friendly lending program StatCap will be a horizontal Adaptable Program Loan (APL), based on a sector wide approach. Under the APL, individual countries will obtain separate loans or credits to finance comprehensive or sectoral national statistical capacity building projects. National projects will be appraised and prepared for approval following normal provisions for investment lending*. The program will treat specific country projects developed within the global framework as “phases” of a horizontal APL, with approval at the Vice President level. Countries may be grouped according to their readiness to undertake the initial set of assistance activities aimed at establishing capacity. The pre-conditions for countries to participate in the program will serve as the “triggers” in an APL for the start of a next phase. To support a long-term approach, countries may implement several linked projects, with the completion of the first serving as the trigger for the next, with appropriate indicators of success and agreed mechanisms for monitoring and evaluation. * There are two other multi-country programs in the Bank now: HIV/AIDS prevention and control APLs for Africa and for the Caribbean region

What will StatCap finance? Improving statistical policy and regulatory framework Development of statistical infrastructure Upgrading and developing statistical operations and procedures Investment in physical infrastructure and equipment Human resource development A. Organizational development and management А1. Streamlining the organizational set-up of the statistical system A2. Building of institutional management systems ·         Financial Management and Planning ·         Human Resources Management ·         Document Management System ·         Quality Management А3. Strengthening of the system of staff training and re-training А4. Development of statistical data dissemination and users’ education strategy А5. Improvement of relations with respondents and data providers   B. Statistical infrastructure B1. Improvement of household sample frame; B2. Establishment of the statistical register of enterprises and individual entrepreneurs; B3. Introduction of the unified classification system; B4. Improvement of legislative base of state statistical system. C. Data development Data collection modernization: С1. Household sample surveys С2. Integrated annual enterprise statistics С3. Sub-annual surveys of economic activities are geared to upgrade data collection mechanisms. The focal point of the data collection modernization is (i) development and implementation of multi-purpose sample household surveys; (ii) integration of the existing enterprise surveys; (iii) revision of data collection periodicity; and (iv) introduction of sampling methods into enterprise surveys. Streamlining of current data collection processes by: Sub-components C4-C10 will allow to fully implement international standards in major data categories: C4. National accounts C5. Price statistics C6. Government finance statistics C7. Money and banking statistics C8. Foreign trade and balance of payments C9. Demography, social statistics and poverty statistics C10. Other statistics E. Introduction of modern information and communication technology Information and communications technology (ICT) provides the backbone for efficiency gains and quality improvements and thus upgrading the ICT is a strategic theme. Procurement and development decisions will be made in accordance with a single, coherent and up-to-date ICT Strategy. They will include upgrading of: desktop hardware and software; internal computer network; database management and data processing systems; security, archiving and confidentiality protection systems; and data dissemination and exchange systems.

What will StatCap finance? Ranges of indicative investments Country size (millions of people) Range (US$ mil) 1 1.5-2.5 10 8-12 20 15-25 50 25-35 100 30-50 1,000 150-250 Since project costs will be based on the situation in each country, and the strategic choices made in Statistical Master Plans, this analysis does not attempt to prescribe project costs. However, it is possible to make informed predictions, based on experience of existing capacity building projects. For example, the cost for a medium sized country of 20 million, over five years, is expected to be about $20 million, or $1 per capita. This roughly equates to the (empirically observed) expected cost of carrying out a full population census, which may be taken as a useful guide to estimate costs in smaller and larger countries. However, smaller countries will have higher relative costs compared to larger countries, because there will be economies of scale in larger countries – for example in the provision of consultancy support for the introduction of new techniques, or when conducting pilot surveys.

StatCap CANDIDATES The Map is based on a “Statistical Capacity Score” for 125 countries[1], where a high score indicates a better compliance with good statistical practice.   The assessment includes the following 10 factors: recent national accounts base year is within last 10 years; (ii) compliance with the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual; (iii) vital registration system operating (iv) SDDS subscription; (v) population and (vi) agricultural census within the last 10 years; (vii) up-to-date reporting of the external debt; (viii) export and import price (or unit values) indexes are compiled; (ix) the current CPI basket is less than 10 years old; (x) sub-annual production index is compiled. The underlying information is primarily data documentation in the 2002 WDI and August 2002 IFS. A simple score based on what proportion of all criteria are satisfied places half of the countries at 40 percent or below and another one quarter between 41 and 60 percent. Many of the lowest scoring countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa, while those in the upper 20 percent are from the ECA and LCR. [1] Excludes countries with a population below one million.

Eligibility criteria Preparation of a National Statistical Development Strategy National commitment and leadership Willingness to comply with good statistical practice Participation in global development and monitoring activities 1. National Statistical Development Strategy   An eligible country would have a coherent national statistical strategy, prepared and owned by the country with broad involvement of key stakeholders, and have included financing for statistical development programs in the National Budget. 2. National commitment and leadership An eligible country would have national commitment to have a strengthened statistical system. The country would also have on-going or planned public sector interventions in the area of use of statistical products to better design and manage policies, programs and resource allocation. It would also have a high-level leadership, including a well structured project management unit empowered to be proactive; a national leader/champion with sufficient stature to direct, coordinate, and oversee the implementation of strategy and action plan (e.g. National Statistical Council); an appropriate statistical legislation; evidence of current budgetary support for statistical development and provisions for statistical staff development and retention. 3. Willingness to comply with good statistical practice An eligible country would have a commitment to use the internationally approved dissemination standards demonstrated by either aspiration to subscribe to the IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) or participation in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). 4. Participation in global development and monitoring activities Participation of an eligible country in global development and monitoring activities, such as Poverty Reduction Strategy and Millennium Development Goals is a driver for the government to demand statistical information for policy decisions and progress monitoring. At the same time, it sets high national priorities to guide the development of national statistical programs.

How will StatCap work? Requires a Project Appraisal Document (PAD). PAD will be based on a Statistical Master Plan (SMP) for the country The SMP will cover the entire national statistical system, even if the project is to finance SCB in only one area Participation in STATCAP will require the preparation of a Project Appraisal Document (PAD) using a standard template. The PAD will be based on interventions identified in a Statistical Master Plan (SMP) for the country. The SMP will cover the entire national statistical system and will draw on existing national strategies and capabilities, although the resulting Project may focus on specific sectors or take a comprehensive approach covering the entire statistical system. The SMP will provide the rationale for the proposed investment operation and supply the essential background information needed by the Task Team Leader to prepare the Project Appraisal Document (PAD). The structure of the SMP is designed to link directly to the preparation of the PAD.

Statistical Master Plan Based on existing strategies and processes Identifies strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) Proposes an action plan Action plan will cover Statistical policy and the regulatory framework, management and organization Statistical infrastructure Statistical operations and procedures Physical infrastructure and equipment. The Statistical Master Plan covers the whole statistical system and would involve the evaluation of data users’ needs as well as data providers’ means, through a participatory process with national stakeholders and international donors. The Statistical Master Plan provides full evaluation of the existing state of the statistical system in the country, taking account of strengths and weaknesses, the extent to which the statistical system conforms to domestic data needs and international best practice in terms of standards and methodologies concerning data production and dissemination; sets out a viable, technically sound and user-oriented medium term work program with planned actions with roadmap and timetable, covering both data production and dissemination, and institutional reforms aimed at achieving cost effective and efficient statistical approaches, as well as key progress monitoring indicators for statistical improvements. The Statistical Master Plan should be validated through consultations with all major stakeholders and costed both in terms of domestic and external resources.

Monitoring and Evaluation Identification of specific targets and indicators, according to goals set out in the SMP Will use international standards IMF’s GDDS/SDDS and DQAF UN’s fundamental principles of official statistics PARIS21 Indicators of statistical capacity building

Monitoring and Evaluation Key performance indicators: USER SATISFACTION STATISTICAL QUALITY RESPONDENT’S BURDEN TIMELINESS USER SATISFACTION Rate of user satisfaction increases from x to y by end of program (include consultation, usefulness of products, etc.) Targeted statistical products are easily accessible in relevant media with metadata and interpretation of findings, etc.   STATISTICAL QUALITY: sound data sources used; coverage of statistics improves or is more relevant Increase in surveys response rates (e.g. from % to %) RESPONDENT’S BURDEN Increase in the rate of data provision of administrative statistics TIMELINESS Reduction in time lag between data collection and dissemination Statistical outputs are released within the time limits and with frequency meeting GDDS/SDDS requirements

Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building Can provide resources for the development of statistical development strategies At present about 8 countries are preparing strategies and 4 more have applied for grants TFSCB will be a major source of finance for the preparation of strategies and an SMP for countries participating in StatCap Financial assistance for the preparation of the SMP and for country strategy processes may be available from the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building (TFSCB) or other grant facilities.

TFSCB and SMP preparation To facilitate the the process, TFSCB will develop A template application for SMP funding from TFSCB (about $150,000) Consultant’s guidelines for the SMP preparation Fast track approval of SMP application