2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation Apr. 12, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use ? 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 95.9 Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 164.0 Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,358 14,558 Beg. Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 801 Imports 14 8 28 20 15 Total Supply 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,506 15,374 Feed & Residual 5,182 5,125 4,793 4,600 5,200 Ethanol 3,709 4,591 5,021 5,000 4,950 Food, Seed, & Other 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,405 1,420 Exports 1,849 1,980 1,835 1,700 1,900 Total Use 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,705 13,470 Ending Stocks 1,616 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.20 5.00 ? Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 73.9 Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.5 43.9 Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,056 3,202 Beg. Stocks 205 138 151 215 250 Imports 13 15 14 Total Supply 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,286 3,467 Crush 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,630 1,660 Seed & Residual 106 110 130 116 126 Exports 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,290 1,550 Total Use 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,036 3,335 Ending Stocks Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.30 12.25 11.50 ? Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 3 3
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use ? 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.9 Yield (bu./acre) 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 Production (mil. bu.) 2,499 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,087 Beg. Stocks 306 657 976 862 793 Imports 127 119 97 120 Total Supply 2,932 2,993 3,279 2,982 3,100 Food 927 919 926 930 935 Seed 78 69 71 79 83 Feed & Residual 255 150 132 180 Exports 1,015 879 1,289 1,000 975 Total Use 2,275 2,018 2,417 2,189 2,173 Ending Stocks 937 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.78 4.87 5.70 7.30 6.30 ? Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 4 4
Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS
Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS
Crop Intentions Source: USDA-NASS
Corn Intentions Source: USDA-NASS
Soybean Intentions Source: USDA-NASS
Winter Wheat Plantings Source: USDA-NASS
Durum Wheat Intentions Source: USDA-NASS
Spring Wheat Intentions Source: USDA-NASS
Historical Performance Source: USDA-NASS
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15
World Wheat Production Source: USDA 16 16
Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension
Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 4/10/2012
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS
Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS
Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS
Change of Export Pace
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE, EIA
U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS
Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price
Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price
Projected ‘11 Season-Average Wheat Price
Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price
Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price
Projected ‘12 Season-Average Wheat Price
Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond General economic conditions Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices Supply/demand concerns Intentions vs. plantings Biofuel growth and energy demand Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? 2011/12 USDA Futures (4/10/12) 2012/13 Corn $6.20 $5.92 $5.28 Soybeans $12.25 $12.39 $13.09 Wheat $7.30 $7.21 $5.98
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/