The severity pyramid structure for hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) (total, all aetiologies) and EV-A71 in particular. The severity pyramid structure.

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Presentation transcript:

The severity pyramid structure for hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) (total, all aetiologies) and EV-A71 in particular. The severity pyramid structure for hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) (total, all aetiologies) and EV-A71 in particular. Bordered boxes are data sources, while boxes within the pyramids are estimated quantities. Pale yellow boxes represent the models and outcomes of submodel 1, the infection rate model. This model uses serological data and differential equations to estimate the rate at which infection must occur to match with observed seropositivity level of EV-A71. Blue boxes represent the data, model and outcomes of submodel 2, the symptomatic incidence rate model. This model uses surveillance data from Singapore to infer the incidence rate of HFMD and EV-A71-specific HFMD. Together with submodel 1, the estimated symptomatic rate of EVA71 (cyan box) can be calculated. The orange boxes represent the data and models of submodel 3: the hierarchical model, which is used to estimate indices that quantifies the higher-level severities of HFMD. CNS, central nervous system; MOH, Ministry of Health. Wee Ming Koh et al. BMJ Glob Health 2018;3:e000442 © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.