Environmental targets for the NEC analysis M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, F. Wagner Environmental targets for the NEC analysis Meeting of the NECPI working group, March 29-30, 2007

Target setting for the NEC analysis TSAP has established environmental targets for 2020 In the meantime, methodology, data and boundary conditions have changed: Ecosystem-specific deposition for eutrophication Multi-year meteorology Extension to EU-27 Extension to Norway Mapping of environmental targets to new conditions has been done in NEC report #2 on the basis of relative improvements stated in TSAP

Impact indicators for 2000 computed with 5-years meteorology compared to 1997 met. *) with different population data

TSAP environmental targets

Translation of eutrophication target TSAP target (-43% km2) was calculated with grid-average deposition NEC analysis applies ecosystem-specific deposition, which is generally higher for ecosystems TSAP percentage target is not achievable with new calculation method NEC approach: Relative change in km2 achieved with TSAP emission reductions recomputed with ecosystem-specific deposition. Resulting reduction percentage (-31%) applied for NEC

Distribution of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads TSAP calculations vs. NEC optimizations with Euro-VI

Extension to EU-27 and Norway TSAP targets have been computed for EU-25 For NEC, percentage changes have been applied to EU-27 + Norway.

Translation of the TSAP environmental targets EU25 EU27 EU-27 + Norway Unit TSAP target for 2020 Impact indicator for 2000 Target level 2020 Lost life years YOLL 47% 200.3 106.2 213.8 113.3 214.4 113.6 Eutrophication 1000 km2 31% 913,7 681,7 1,019,9 703,8 1,033,0 705,6 Acidification – forests 74% 255,9 66,6 259,4 67,4 262,2 68,2 Acidification – freshwater 39% 37,6 22,9 37,5 105,2 64,1 Premature mortality # of cases 10% 18,7 16,9 20,3 18,3 20,4

Summary Health impacts for PM: Acidification target: EU-27+N –wide reductions in YOLLs by 47% Acidification target: EU-27+N –wide reduction in unprotected ecosystems area by 74% for forests and 39% for water. In each Member State, a 30% gap closure of accumulated excess deposition between CLE and MRR Eutrophication target: EU-27+N –wide reduction in unprotected ecosystems area by 31%. In each Member State, gap closure of accumulated excess deposition between CLE and MRR accumulated by 67% (national proj.) and 61% (PRIMES/CAPRI proj.) Ozone target: EU-27+N –wide reduction in premature mortality by 10%

Conclusions There is some ambiguity in translating the targets stated in TSAP to the NEC environment Revised methodologies, improved data, multi-year meteorology Extension to EU-27 + Norway CAFE applied equity criteria for acidification, eutrophication and ozone, but they are not reflected in the TSAP target The approach applied for this analysis: Achieves equivalent environmental improvements as stated in the TSAP Might re-distribute environmental improvements across Member States Increased flexibility reduces costs for measures