The how and why of voting in American elections Voter Behavior The how and why of voting in American elections

Larry Sabato, The Crystal Ball

THINK-PAIR-SHARE Would the results of the 2012 election have been different if EVERYONE voted? Do American political parties really want everyone to vote? Will turnout in the 2014 midterms be up or down from 2010?

Updates to Patterson Voter Behavior What has changed (if any) since your text was published? 1. Find in the text where Patterson discusses the information on your slide. (page #) Is Patterson still accurate? Why or why not? Cite textual evidence. (You may also use the “Changing Voter” article. Finally, make sure you can explain your slide to the class. Why is your slide (AP VOCAB WORDS) important to voter behavior? Let’s go!

56% 11% 22% 68% Cast Presidential Ballots Campaign Volunteer Protest Voter Behavior 56% Cast Presidential Ballots (avg. since 1960) Campaign Volunteer Protest 11% 22% Vs. Activists Inactive 68% Civil Society Affiliated w/ 1+ nonpolitical organizations

Rise of Independent Voters = DEALIGNMENT with political parties Behavior Rise of Independent Voters = DEALIGNMENT with political parties

Straight Ticket OR Split Ticket? Voter Behavior Straight Ticket OR Split Ticket?

Prospective Voting Retrospective Voting “Forward Looking” Voter Behavior Prospective Voting “Forward Looking” Issue- Focused Retrospective Voting “Backward Looking” Vote for the incumbent if…

Voter Behavior Divided Government Source: New York Times Nov 2008

Electoral REALIGNMENT Voter Behavior 1932 Presidential Election 1980 Presidential Election CRITICAL ELECTION = Electoral REALIGNMENT

Voter Behavior http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm

Rise of Independent Voters = DEALIGNMENT with political parties Behavior Rise of Independent Voters = DEALIGNMENT with political parties

Voter Behavior

Voter Behavior Factor: the Gender Gap

Voter Behavior Youth Vote

Voter Behavior

VEP = Voting Eligible Population VAP = Voting Age Population Voter Behavior VEP = Voting Eligible Population VAP = Voting Age Population 58.2% VEP “United States Election Project” @George Mason University http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html Minnesota = 75.7%? How did they do that?

Voter Behavior

Voter Behavior African Americans Voted at a Higher Rate than Whites in the 2012 Election — A FIRST reported by the Census Bureau Reports

Voter Behavior

In the United States, eligibility to vote: Voter Behavior In the United States, eligibility to vote: requires the voter to be registered. requires the voter to be at least 18 years old Is determined by federal, not state, laws mandates that the voter be a natural-born citizen I only III and IV only I, II, and IV only II, III, and IV only I, II, III and IV

Of the following groups, which would be the least likely to vote? Voter Behavior Of the following groups, which would be the least likely to vote? College graduates Senior citizens High income earners Middle aged [45-64] High School Drop-outs

Voters find it difficult to register to vote. Behavior Which of the following is NOT an explanation for low voter turnout in the United States? Voters find it difficult to register to vote. Media coverage is uninformative to most voters. Most Americans have high political efficacy. Negative campaigning alienates voters. Nonvoters do not believe that their vote matters.