Development of a duplex-derived velocity risk prediction model of disease progression in patients with moderate asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis

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Presentation transcript:

Development of a duplex-derived velocity risk prediction model of disease progression in patients with moderate asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis Caitlin W. Hicks, MD, MS, Joseph K. Canner, MHS, Isibor Arhuidese, MD, MPH, Natalia O. Glebova, MD, PhD, Eric Schneider, PhD, Umair Qazi, MD, MPH, Bruce Perler, MD, Mahmoud B. Malas, MD, MHS Journal of Vascular Surgery Volume 60, Issue 6, Pages 1585-1592 (December 2014) DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2014.08.056 Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

Fig 1 Use of the internal carotid artery (ICA)/common carotid artery (CCA) ratio for predicting asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ASCAS) progression. A, Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses suggested that the ICA/CCA ratio at initial presentation alone could predict progression of ASCAS to severe carotid artery stenosis with the simplest maximum efficacy (Harrell's C, 0.74). B, Assuming a ≥10% risk of progression as a positive test, a ICA/CCA ratio cutoff of 2.5 was able to predict 2-year ASCAS progression with a sensitivity of 80.7% and specificity of 64.0%. Journal of Vascular Surgery 2014 60, 1585-1592DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2014.08.056) Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

Fig 2 Proposed decision-making tree for the surveillance of moderate (50%-69%) asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ASCAS). CCA, Common carotid artery; ICA, internal carotid artery. Journal of Vascular Surgery 2014 60, 1585-1592DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2014.08.056) Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions