Theft Risk Assessment Service TEG MI Pack – February 2019

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Presentation transcript:

Theft Risk Assessment Service TEG MI Pack – February 2019 Presented by Experian 19th March 2019 MI based upon February 2019 submissions window and subsequent Outlier processing.

February TEG MI File Submissions 97 Suppliers expected to send data 82 submitted 15 not received 9 Suppliers data not expected 5 new suppliers 2 no registered supply points 2 exiting service 163 files expected 142 files received 135 passed TRAS file entry criteria 7 files failed TRAS files entry criteria 21 files not received 17 resubmissions 1 Scheme queries received (1 gas, 0 electric). Total submission volume of 53.3m consumption records (95.35% coverage) Jan – 51.5m – 92.6% Dec – 46.97m – 84.43% Nov - 50.39m - 90.57% Actions Taken File failures - 2 files failed due to formatting issues (2 x suppliers). 1 file failed due to invalid naming convention (1 supplier). 2 files failed due to invalid tamper code (2 suppliers) Non Compliant suppliers - all have been sent chaser emails. All TDIS queries responded to within 5 working days. Note: Supply point coverage is calculated based on the number of unique MPXNs submitted compared to the volume of MPXNs provided by ElectraLink based on SPAA and DCUSA records. The last provided volumes from ElectraLink represent the January 2017 position. 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Match rates Match Rates – February Submissions Residential location match rates marginally down, stable Electric consumption submissions match rate 92.04% Leading Practice 99.19% Gas consumption submissions match rate now 92.57% Leading Practice 98.92% Commercial match up significantly Result of one large supplier addressing previous submission issues Electric consumption submissions - 37% Leading Practice 44.1% Gas consumption submissions - 47% Leading Practice 54.6% Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. Results represent cumulative match rates in the life of the service. 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Industry theft reporting Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. Confirmed theft volumes reported by “Date Investigation Closed” 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Expert Group: Service Update

February TEG MI Residential summary Residential performance stable Increase in new QO volumes driven by new theft hotspots [slide 7]. This follows high industry theft volumes last month. Industry theft volumes fell this month, back in line with long-run average [5] TRAS-identified rates dipped below long-term average in month [8]. Long term trend improving consistently [9]. TRAS-only volumes above long-term average [5] No increases in residential engagement [13] Life of Service 528,430 47,844 55,559 8,859 1,538 Unique Qualified Outliers +35,257 Accessed Qualified Outliers +3,337 Industry Thefts +1,763 TRAS Identified Thefts +372 Unique TRAS Thefts +54 Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. . 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Expert Group: Service Update

February TEG MI Commercial summary Life of Service Both industry activity and TRAS model performance below YTD performance in February Overall industry theft volumes remain lower than average for the second consecutive month [slide 16] Monthly TRAS identification rates and TRAS only rates also below year-to-date average [14-16] Despite fall in industry activity, new suppliers are contributing to investigations [17] 11,036 4,955 4,247 159 123 Unique Qualified Outliers +453 Accessed Qualified Outliers +309 Industry Thefts +110 TRAS Identified Thefts +3 TRAS Only Thefts +2 Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. . 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Expert Group: Service Update

February TEG MI Qualified Outlier volumes Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. Qualified Outlier volumes reported by processing month. 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Expert Group: Service Update

February TEG MI Residential performance by contract year Year 3* (*YTD – 8m) 125,702 14,198 18,786 1,790 412 141,067 13,223 18,066 2,752 582 261,661 20,423 18,707 4,317 544 Unique Qualified Outliers Accessed Qualified Outliers Industry Thefts 9.5% of industry theft identified 15.2% of industry theft identified 23% of industry theft identified TRAS Identified Thefts Unique TRAS Thefts Monthly TRAS identified rate 21.1% (YTD 23.1%) Monthly TRAS only rate 3.1% (YTD 2.9%) Monthly Industry volumes 1,763 (YTD average 1,871) YTD based on 10 observation periods 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Residential monthly theft identification rates and industry theft volumes The monthly identification rate above shows the proportion of industry thefts reported as closed in any given month that were identified by the Theft Risk Assessment Service (# TRAS-identified Thefts / # total industry thefts). The Residential sector shows a consistent improvement in identification rates through time, reflecting the benefits of continuous improvement in the underlying models (segmentation refreshes and scorecards). 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Residential breakdown of industry confirmed thefts by classification 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Residential breakdown of industry confirmed thefts by risk index 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Commercial performance by contract year Year 3* (*YTD) 3,873 1,778 1,196 35 30 2,151 1,083 1,484 49 45 5,012 2,094 1,567 75 48 Unique Qualified Outliers Accessed Qualified Outliers Industry Thefts 2.9% of industry theft identified 3.3% of industry theft identified 4.8% of industry theft identified TRAS Identified Thefts Unique TRAS Thefts Monthly TRAS identified rate 2.7% (YTD 4.8%) Monthly TRAS only rate 1.8% (YTD 3.1%) Monthly Industry volumes 110 (YTD average 157) Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. . 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Commercial monthly theft identification rates and industry theft volumes Identification rates have been more volatile in the Commercial sector, and while there is still an underlying improvement in identification rates through time and with model improvements this is less marked than in residential. Over 90% of Commercial theft is identified outside of the current Outlier population – this will be addressed by the Commercial Coverage Expansion and potential changes in the Outlier threshold. 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Commercial breakdown of industry confirmed thefts by classification 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Commercial breakdown of industry confirmed thefts by risk index 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Theft lead source conversion rates Top residential lead source by volume is “Other”. Top commercial lead source is “Supplier” – (supplier analytical models). Conversion rates by “intelligence-led” leads – i.e. Police, Meter Reader, Field Agent and Crimestoppers) are typically much higher than analytical leads (Supplier, TRAS). Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. Results based on last 24 months observations. 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Residential conversion rates Residential conversion rates in Year 3 have fallen from Year 2. A contributing factor has been increased reporting of Desktop Reviews – but even excluding theses the conversion rate has fallen from >25% to 20%. Gas conversion rates have fallen markedly in the latest generation. A current focus of the next generation of scorecards is the feasibility of developing fuel-type specific scorecards. Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

February TEG MI Commercial conversion rates In contrast, while the headline Commercial conversion rate in Year 3 has fallen from Year 2, once Desktop Reviews are taken out of the equation the underlying conversion rate has increased year-on-year. Overall conversion rates are lower than residential – this applies to every lead sources. Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

Appendices 06/05/2019 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Expert Group: Service Update

Appendix I: Additional MI Residential performance – all Outcome closure volumes by date closed 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

Appendix I: Additional MI Commercial performance – all Outcome closure volumes by date closed 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

Appendix I: Additional MI Residential performance - Electric - by contract year Year 3* (*YTD) 61,410 7,100 15,824 1,112 256 106,799 8,661 14,783 1,824 320 208,319 16,112 15,521 3,175 387 Unique Qualified Outliers Accessed Qualified Outliers Industry Thefts 7% of industry theft identified 12.3% of industry theft identified 20.5% of industry theft identified TRAS Identified Thefts TRAS Only Thefts Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. . 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

Appendix I: Additional MI Residential performance - Gas - by contract year Year 3* (*YTD) 64,234 7,098 2,962 976 237 34,236 4,562 3,283 630 181 53,432 4,311 3,186 1,142 110 Unique Qualified Outliers Accessed Qualified Outliers Industry Thefts 33% of industry theft identified 19.2% of industry theft identified 35.8% of industry theft identified TRAS Identified Thefts TRAS Only Thefts Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. . 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

Appendix I: Additional MI Commercial performance – Electric - by contract year Year 3* (*YTD) 1,484 457 887 13 11 674 423 1,156 27 26 2,404 585 1,290 34 23 Unique Qualified Outliers Accessed Qualified Outliers Industry Thefts 1.5% of industry theft identified 2.3% of industry theft identified 2.6% of industry theft identified TRAS Identified Thefts TRAS Only Thefts Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. . 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review

Appendix I: Additional MI Commercial – Gas - by contract year Year 3* (*YTD) 2,534 1,121 309 22 19 1,332 812 328 22 19 2,608 1,557 277 41 25 Unique Qualified Outliers Accessed Qualified Outliers Industry Thefts 7.1% of industry theft identified 6.7% of industry theft identified 14.8% of industry theft identified TRAS Identified Thefts TRAS Only Thefts Source: Experian TRAS Data Warehouse. “TRAS Only” = Confirmed Thefts with TRAS as Theft Lead Source. “TRAS Identified” = Confirmed Thefts where a TRAS generated a Qualified Outlier regardless of final Theft Lead Source. . 06/05/2019 Experian Confidential - Theft Risk Assessment Service Review