Sensitivity to WRF microphysics/ Cu parametrisation

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Convection plans Alison Stirling.

Advertisements

Convection Initiative discussion points What info do parametrizations & 1.5-km forecasts need? –Initiation mechanism, time-resolved cell size & updraft.

Some questions on convection that could be addressed through another UK field program centered at Chilbolton Dan Kirshbaum 1.

DYMECS: Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (NERC Standard Grant) University of Reading: Robin Hogan, Bob Plant, Thorwald Stein,

Moisture Transport in Baroclinic Waves Ian Boutle a, Stephen Belcher a, Bob Plant a Bob Beare b, Andy Brown c 24 April 2014.

Meteorologisches Institut der Universität München

Sensitivity of the HWRF model prediction for Hurricane Ophelia (2005) to the choice of the cloud and precipitation scheme Yuqing Wang and Qingqing Li International.

Impact of environmental moisture on intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010) Longtao Wu, Hui Su, and Robert Fovell HS3 Science Meeting May 2014.

An intraseasonal moisture nudging experiment in a tropical channel version of the WRF model: The model biases and the moisture nudging scale dependencies.

The Problem of Parameterization in Numerical Models METEO 6030 Xuanli Li University of Utah Department of Meteorology Spring 2005.

5/18/2015 Prediction of the 10 July 2004 Beijing Flood with a High- Resolution NWP model Ying-Hwa Kuo 1 and Yingchun Wang 2 1. National Center for Atmospheric.

This is the footer WRF : “Great North Run” and COPS Ralph Burton, NCAS (Leeds) Alan Gadian, NCAS (Leeds) Alison Coals, NCAS (Leeds)

The Effect of the Terrain on Monsoon Convection in the Himalayan Region Socorro Medina 1, Robert Houze 1, Anil Kumar 2,3 and Dev Niyogi 3 Conference on.

THE BLACK FOREST STORM OF 15 JULY 2007: NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND SENSITIVITY STUDIES Evelyne Richard 1, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau 1 Cyrille Flamant 2 and.

This is the footer Modelling of deep convective clouds and orographic triggering of convection during the COPS experiment Ralph Burton,

The DYMECS project A statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution models Thorwald Stein, Robin Hogan, John Nicol, Robert.

The Hurricane Weather Research & Forecasting (HWRF) Prediction System Next generation non-hydrostatic weather research and hurricane prediction system.

Implementation of IPHOC in VVCM: Tests of GCSS Cases Anning Cheng 1,2 and Kuan-Man Xu 2 1.AS&M, Inc. 2.Science Directorate, NASA Langley Research Center.

The National Environmental Agency of Georgia L. Megrelidze, N. Kutaladze, Kh. Kokosadze NWP Local Area Models’ Failure in Simulation of Eastern Invasion.

Distant Effects of Recurving Tropical Cyclones on Rainfall Production in Midlatitude Convective Systems Russ S. Schumacher 1, Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr.

Simulating Supercell Thunderstorms in a Horizontally-Heterogeneous Convective Boundary Layer Christopher Nowotarski, Paul Markowski, Yvette Richardson.

Non-hydrostatic Numerical Model Study on Tropical Mesoscale System During SCOUT DARWIN Campaign Wuhu Feng 1 and M.P. Chipperfield 1 IAS, School of Earth.

13 June, 2013 Dymecs Meeting, Reading Tropical convective organisation in the UM Chris Holloway NCAS-Climate, Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading.

Vocals_vis_loop. UK - VOCALS Meeting Manchester 10 th March 2009 Leeds Activities and Plans Mirek Andrejczuk, Alan Blyth, Ralph Burton, Alan Gadian, Patricia.

MJO simulations under a dry environment Marcela Ulate M Advisor: Chidong Zhang (… in a Nudging World)

DYMECS: Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (NERC Standard Grant) University of Reading: Robin Hogan, Bob Plant, Thorwald Stein,

The three-dimensional structure of convective storms Robin Hogan John Nicol Robert Plant Peter Clark Kirsty Hanley Carol Halliwell Humphrey Lean Thorwald.

WRF Volcano modelling studies, NCAS Leeds Ralph Burton, Stephen Mobbs, Alan Gadian, Barbara Brooks.

Significance of subgrid-scale parametrization for cloud resolving modelling Françoise Guichard (thanks to) F. Couvreux, J.-L. Redelsperger, J.-P. Lafore,

© Crown copyright Met Office High resolution COPE simulations Kirsty Hanley, Humphrey Lean UK.

© Crown copyright Met Office High resolution COPE simulations Kirsty Hanley, Humphrey Lean UK.

Improvement of the EDMF Scheme using Kain Fristch approach for Meso-NH and AROME Improvement of the Eddy-Diffusivity Mass Flux scheme using Kain-Fritsch.

Impact of ProbeX-IOP (KEOP) observations on the predictive skill of heavy rainfall in the middle part of Korea Hee-Sang Lee and Seung-Woo Lee Forecast.

Yuqing Wang and Chunxi Zhang International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii.

APR CRM simulations of the development of convection – some sensitivities Jon Petch Richard Forbes Met Office Andy Brown ECMWF October 29 th 2003.

Heavy precipitation Heavy precipitation Poland under water, July 1997 Group 13 Convective closure shemesDomain size & resolution Soil moistureBoundary.

Numerical investigation of the multi-scale processes inducing convection initiation for the 12 June 2002 IHOP case study Preliminary study: testing the.

Extreme convection: WRF volcano plume model  Resting atmosphere – U.S. Standard atmosphere; dry;  Different thermal perturbations at “vent”; order of.

A modeling study of cloud microphysics: Part I: Effects of Hydrometeor Convergence on Precipitation Efficiency. C.-H. Sui and Xiaofan Li.

RegCM sensitivity simulations: Land use effects in Eastern Europe Group 15 Mladek, Onol, Tomingas.

Characteristics of precipitating convection in the UM at Δx≈200m-2km

The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard

Simulating rainfall in the Chehalis river basin using the WRF model

Numerical Weather Forecast Model (governing equations)

Sensitivity to the Representation of Microphysical Processes in Numerical Simulations during Tropical Storm Formation Penny, A. B., P. A. Harr, and J.

James D. Doyle and Clark Amerault,

WRF model runs of 2 and 3 August

MM5- and WRF-Simulated Cloud and Moisture Fields

Updates of convection scheme in the 5km resolution operational system

Alan F. Srock and Lance F. Bosart

Seamless turbulence parametrization across model resolutions

The DYMECS project A statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution models Thorwald Stein, Robin Hogan, John Nicol, Robert.

WRF Modelling of Volcanic Ash Dispersion

An Overview of the NARCCAP WRF Simulations and Analysis

Michael J. Brennan and Norman W. (Wes) Junker*

Inna M. Gubenko and Konstantin G

Studying Hector: meteorology and tracer transport

Han, J. , W. Wang, Y. C. Kwon, S. -Y. Hong, V. Tallapragada, and F

Convective and orographically-induced precipitation study

Sensitivity of WRF microphysics to aerosol concentration

Concurrent Sensitivities of an Idealized Deep Convective Storm to Parameterization of Microphysics, Horizontal Grid Resolution, and Environmental Static.

Rita Roberts and Jim Wilson National Center for Atmospheric Research

Li, H., X. Cui, and D.-L. Zhang, 2017 Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 181–197.

Coastal Atmospheric Modeling for both Operational and Research Applications using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) Model.

Tong Zhu and Da-Lin Zhang 2006:J. Atmos. Sci.,63,

A Multiscale Numerical Study of Hurricane Andrew (1992)

Kurowski, M .J., K. Suselj, W. W. Grabowski, and J. Teixeira, 2018

Li, Z., P. Zuidema, P. Zhu, and H. Morrison, 2015

WRF plume modelling update NCAS, Leeds

Lightning Potential Index (J/Kg) (Yair et al.2010,JGR)

Presentation transcript:

Sensitivity to WRF microphysics/ Cu parametrisation COPS 15th July: Sensitivity to WRF microphysics/ Cu parametrisation Ralph Burton, NCAS (Leeds) Alan Gadian, NCAS (Leeds) This is the footer

15th July: isolated deep convective cloud Note the location and orientation (SW-NEish) of the storm cloud

WRF: COPS domains 6.3 km resolution 2.1 km resolution

WRF: inner domain: 700m resolution

  Sensitivity Tests Run # Microphysics Cu Param. Vert. levels Cloud? 1 Ferrier Betts-Miller 81  2 Kain-Fritsch 121 3  4 Thompson 5 ??

WRF: sensitivity tests – CAPE and wind vectors: 15Z Ferrier; Kain-Fritsch This is the footer

WRF: sensitivity tests – CAPE and wind vectors: 15Z Thompson; Kain-Fritsch

WRF: sensitivity tests – CAPE and wind vectors: 15Z Ferrier; Betts-Miller

WRF: skew-t and wind vectors: 15Z Isosurface of cloud water mixing ratio = 1E-4 kg/kg Cloud is quite shallow

WRF: cloud evolution: Ferrier / Betts-Miller 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z

Further work / comments Vertical Resolution Lean & Clark (2003) argued that 25m near surface, 50m through BL, 250m in troposphere is needed. Change WRF vertical levels to suit this. Horizontal Resolution Petch (2006) argues you need 200/250m to capture the growth from shallow to deep convection. Change WRF grid resolution to suit this.

Conclusions The Ferrier / Betts-Miller appears to present the “best” combination of microphysics and Cu parametrisation. Cf. “An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India”, Pure & Applied Geophysics, Rama Rao et al., Sept. 2007 – same conclusion Area of high(er) CAPE in the region of the cloud location. Zone of convergence at the cloud location. BUT Even in the best case, the GFS surface analysis appears to be too dry. ECMWF analysis? Edit GFS analysis for surface moisture? …?