Argonne National Laboratory Argonne Climate Change Capabilities NEMA – Preparedness Committee Briefing October 10, 2014 Go to ”Insert (View) | Header and Footer" to add your organization, sponsor, meeting name here; then, click "Apply to All"

Risk and Infrastructure Science Center (RISC): Core Research Areas Infrastructure Science: Conduct research and analysis to enhance infrastructure resilience and reduce the risk of disruption or destruction from climate change, natural hazards, accidents, or security threats. Inform the resilient design of future cyber and physical infrastructure to build assets, systems, and networks that are capable of withstanding future threats. Cyber Analysis and Operations: Provide operations, subject matter experts, and research support for the development and implementation of advanced cybersecurity solutions. Conduct focused analysis of the intersection of cyber and physical risks. Threat Analysis: Conduct near-real-time, all-source analysis by fusing intelligence with complex datasets and multidisciplinary expertise. Deliver highly sophisticated, scientific analysis through actionable products, portals, and tools. Emergency Preparedness: Develop and apply methodologies and technologies to assist emergency managers, planners, and responders in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from manmade or natural disasters.

Center for Integrated Resiliency Analyses (CIRA) Multidiscipline Virtual Center Integrating Climate and Physical Processes Modeling: Changes in climate may greatly affect infrastructure and social systems. CIRA will use computational models and tools designed to shed light on these complex physical processes and inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. Infrastructure Assessment: To manage risks to infrastructure systems, CIRA draws on advanced modeling and simulation technologies and subject matter experts in diverse systems including power, water, transportation, and telecommunications to enhance climate change resilience. Social Science Modeling: Social dynamics play a role in ecological and economic topics such as climate change, resource scarcity, and epidemics. CIRA will exploit Argonne’s integrated social science modeling capabilities to improve understanding of how social factors influence a community’s resiliency. High-Performance Computer Systems Modeling: Modeling and simulation look at ways to analyze and understand interactions and feedback mechanisms between societal and physical processes. CIRA will use Argonne’s experience in modeling, simulation, and visualization to perform computational experiments for both physical and social systems.

The challenge The President’s Climate Action Plan (2013) addressed the need for a collaborative effort to combat the ongoing impacts of climate change that are becoming more prevalent; the plan directly addressed the need for increased resilience of buildings and infrastructure. Barriers to climate change adaptation consistently identified by State, local, and private-sector officials: Lack of local-level modeling on changes to temperature and precipitation, Lack of high-resolution climate scenario data needed to justify starting adaptation projects, and Lack of a local framework for adaptation planning. Association of Climate Change Officers, Climate Adaptation: A Survey of Concerns Facing Organizations, http://www.accoonline.org/downloads/ACCO-Report-AdaptationSurvey-March2013.pdf Downscaled climate models, coupled with infrastructure modeling and analysis, can inform planning decisions that will result in more resilient infrastructure being designed and built for the future.

Argonne is utilizing its supercomputer to generate local-level climate data Climate Modeling Argonne is downscaling climate information (down to a 12-km community level) derived from large-scale atmospheric models (typically showing broad State or even multi-State-scale data) for DHS and DOD. Model uses the Mira supercomputer at Argonne, given process models and statistical distributions that are computationally demanding. Average Maximum Daily Temp. in Base Year (1995–2005) Average Maximum Daily Temp. in 2045–2054 Period Go to ”Insert (View) | Header and Footer" to add your organization, sponsor, meeting name here; then, click "Apply to All"

Argonne is using downscaled climate data to drive infrastructure impact models Infrastructure models (e.g., EPfast [electric], Ngfast [natural gas], Polfast [petroleum], Restore©, and transportation system) coupled to climate models to assess climate hazards Identifies downstream impacts generated by the disruption of infrastructure systems (e.g., from storm surge, drought, heat wave) For example, Argonne is using the EPfast model to investigate the impacts of midcentury increased ambient temperature on Maine’s electric grid: Determine impacts on the capacity of power plants, transmission lines, and transformers, as well as growth in demand. Determine implications on overall grid performance via load flow simulation. A temperature change of 3–5°C is projected to occur in inland Maine. The temperature change is expected to influence operational characteristics of power plants and transmission lines, as well as level of demand. Current heat gain + Solar heat gain = Radiative heat loss + Convective heat loss Go to ”Insert (View) | Header and Footer" to add your organization, sponsor, meeting name here; then, click "Apply to All"

Impact model details: EPfast Linear, steady-state model provides a quick estimate of impacts on the immediate and downstream substations due to: Uncontrolled islanding Single or multiple transmission line outages Single or multiple substation outages Plant siting and line reinforcement studies Can be used to assess various climate change hazards: Storm surge impacts on critical nodes Heat waves Graphical and tabular HTML – formatted outputs Amount of load reduction per substation Number and size of island grids formed Applications - FEMA Region V – Improvised Nuclear Device Analysis FEMA-DOE New Madrid Seismic Zone Study DHS Regional Resiliency Assessment Program Bureau of Land Management Solar Energy Zone Transmission Study

Argonne is assessing the resilience of communities to climate hazards Regional Resilience Assessment Program (RRAP) Combines tools to assess the resilience of a given urban area, supply chain, or region Utilizes a cross-disciplinary approach (e.g., urban planners, climate scientists, infrastructure system engineers) Previous studies have focused on major cities, multi-State infrastructure systems, agricultural systems, and transportation systems To date, 45 projects have been conducted across the country; many of these considered the impacts of climate change hazards Go to ”Insert (View) | Header and Footer" to add your organization, sponsor, meeting name here; then, click "Apply to All"

What we have learned about the state of climate change preparedness Critical nodes exist in most sectors that already are or could be affected by climate change Barriers to climate change adaptation can be found at the Federal, State, and local levels Policy and regulations Lack of downscaled data informing design standards and guidance Infrastructure planning processes lack climate change adaptation considerations Lack of resources Complexity of climate change hazards and adaptation planning typically requires outside contracting and expertise Go to ”Insert (View) | Header and Footer" to add your organization, sponsor, meeting name here; then, click "Apply to All"

Regional Climate System Assessment Framework

For more information, please contact: Duane Verner Risk and Infrastructure Science Center Global Security Sciences Division Argonne National Laboratory 919-368-4908 dverner@anl.gov Dave Brannegan John Hummel Director Director Risk and Infrastructure Science Center Center for Integrated Resiliency Analyses Global Security Sciences Division Global Security Sciences Division Argonne National Laboratory Argonne National Laboratory 630-252-0932 630-252-7189 dbrannegan@anl.gov jhummel@anl.gov