Supply & Demand Approach— CAP:SAM

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Presentation transcript:

Supply & Demand Approach— CAP:SAM Ken Seasholes Manager, Resource Planning & Analysis Central Arizona Project EMS Basin Study Supply & Demand Team Meeting #1 January 15, 2019

Water Supply & Demand Some of the major factors that affect water supply, demand and reliability: Growth Shortage Climate Variability Socio-Economic Changes Agricultural Trends Water Storage Preferences Policy Changes Behavioral Shifts …. “Driving Forces”

Supply & Demand Challenges Complex relationships among supply & demand factors Within demand (e.g., housing development on Ag land) Within supply (e.g., use of long-term CAP contracts affects Excess CAP) Between supply & demand (e.g., reductions in interior use affect effluent supplies) Significant uncertainties across multiple dimensions The rate of growth The location of growth Changes in current and future demand factors The use of different supply types The reliability of those supplies

CAP Service Area Model (CAP:SAM) Tool for projecting supply and demand in CAP’s three county service area 135 entities (municipal providers, irrigation districts, Tribes, AWBA, CAGRD, etc.) 16 water supply types Accounts for complex legal and physical characteristics of users and supplies Designed to easily generate “what-if” scenarios Data from ADWR, CAP, Associations of Governments

Growth Rates Large Established City Exurban Community Small Bedroom Community Medium Established City

Growth Patterns 2040 Water Providers Outward Growth Infill Redevelopment 2040 Water Providers

Urbanization of Agricultural Land The spatial housing unit scenarios can be used to project urbanization of agricultural land Agricultural Data: Acreage by Crop Type (NASS, 2008-2014) Usage by Supply Type (ADWR, 1985-2013) Crop Consumptive Use (ADWR) National Agricultural Statistics Service CropScape Data Layer, 2013 Town of Gilbert Queen Creek Chandler Heights

Other CAP:SAM Agricultural Factors Recharge via Groundwater Savings Facility (GSF) partnerships On-Reservation Tribal agricultural use Changes in cropping patterns Substitution of higher water use crops Changes in evapotranspiration due to climate change Changes in efficiency/irrigation technology

Model Integration Global Circulation Models (GCMs) Temp, Precip, etc. Environmental impacts Regional Downscaling (Statistical or Dynamical; VIC; etc.) Evapotranspiration & Natural Recharge Hydrologic “Traces” Evapo- transpiration Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) Supply & Demand by Entity CAP:SAM Supply to CAP Pumping & Recharge by Entity Supply to AZ Arizona On-River Uses Distribution of Streambed & Mnt. Recharge Distribution of Pumping & Recharge Growth Projections Land Use, Housing & Pop (COGs, Census, Applied Economics) by Cell by Cell Water Supplies Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW) Water Supply Portfolios, Use, etc. (ADWR, CAP) GW Levels