WHY IS MAJOR WARFARE IN DECLINE? The globalization of economics and trade (What Green referred to as the Modernity Revolution) has led to more widely dispersed hegemons… John Mearsheimer’s “law of water” It also has led to more interconnectivity economically and helped a major hegemon to stay on top of things Many more of the world’s states are democracies (although “The Third Wave” appears to be in reverse at the moment) The international community has developed and deeply institutionalized a number of key norms: Wars of conquest are unacceptable, as is the mass killing of civilians, as is the prolonging of wars that could be ended The number of venues and the resources that they have to resolve the causes of intl. war have proliferated. Demographics—there are relatively way fewer young men than there used to be, and we almost all live in big cities Communications technology, satellites, etc. make it easier than before to have transparency in intl relations so that it lowers misperceptions about balances of powers… And its harder to hide war deaths from citizens Intercontinental bombers, nuclear devices, and now drones, cyberattacks, and AI fighting devices make war unthinkable.

WHY DO WE HAVE THE UN? HOW WELL IS IT WORKING TO HELP INTL SECURITY What is the United Nations? Founded in 1945 as a successor to the League of Nations (a collective security org). The UN initially included 51 member states; it is first and foremost a “great powers concert,” and it has 193 states Why housed in the United States? Why has it locked in a set of “Great Powers” in favor of the rich/west? How does it deal with major inter-state conflict? It seeks to avoid war to begin with Permits selective force by third parties (usually great powers) Coordinates sanctions Coordinates & oversees peacekeeping Facilitates and enforces WMD and enforces other security treaties

THE UN CHARTER: DO ITS CORE CONTRADICTIONS MAKE IT UNWORKABLE THE UN CHARTER: DO ITS CORE CONTRADICTIONS MAKE IT UNWORKABLE? Paragraph 1: “We the peoples of the United Nations are determined to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small” Paragraph 2: The purpose of the UN is to develop “friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples and to take other appropriate measures to strengthen universal peace.”

HOW DOES THE UN DEAL WITH “BELLIGERENTS”? Chapters 6 (ov of peaceful settlement and authority to intervene) and 7 (the UN’s options in dealing with belligerents—blockades, sanctions, force) Why is there no substantial permanent military force at the UN? Where do the troops come from? What is “peacekeeping” and how is it used to end conflict? Originally: a buffer and monitor These “enforcement” missions work less than half of the time (bc no on-the-ground settlement in most cases) When can the UN use humanitarian intervention to prevent disorder within states? Should such force be reserved for acts of genocide and international sec. circumstances only? Sometimes going in w/out state’s permission; sometimes choosing sides Changing rules about the use of force, including more robust arming Now sometimes running elections, refugee camps, and providing basic law and order. Studies show that these “complex” operations have reduced the outbreak of war by half. What proactive (preventative vs. preemptive) role does the UN—if any—have in stopping nuclear proliferation? What about more general threats to security?

WHAT ELSE DOES THE UN DO? Why do we need a permanent forum where even dictators get their say? What role does the UN (the General Assembly) play in the recognition of states and “legitimate” groups Can the UN create intl. norms and agreements? Can the UN facilitate development in a way that is different from the World Bank and the IMF? To run the Intl. Court of Justice and prosecute human rights violations? (When do the rules apply?) To deal with ad hoc humanitarian crises? (WHO, World Bank)

HOW DOES THE UN WORK? How does the Security Council function? Binding resolutions 5 permanent members; 10 regional (2yr terms) “Great power unanimity” (vetoes) 9/15 rule: Why doesn’t it work to give small states more power? The General Assembly? Voting procedures (majority here, but not weighted) 54 member Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC). Organizes spending. Regional and functional commissions The General Secretariat (Kofi Annan, Ghana 1997; to Ban Ki-Moon, S. Korea 2007 to António Guterres, from Portugal 2017 5-year term (renewable), nominated by GA, approval voting in Sec Council; typically renewed for a second term. 43K employees (20K fewer than the state dept.; 5X # of NYC ); some patronage and corruption UN budget = $2b, plus $8b for peacekeeping. By comparison 2007 US military $= $720b; State Dep = 47b; US budget = >3 trillion; US in 1946 = 40% budget; today we give about 25% (of the $15 b. total budget)

CAN WE MAKE THE UN RUN BETTER? Diminishing the problems with peacekeeping by diminishing its scope? US just leveraged cut of 600b to the peacekeeping budget. Ambassador Hailey: “We’re just getting started” How and why did we fix America’s Articles of Confed.? Were its problems any different from the UN’s? Would taxation and a standing army be a good idea? Should we expand the Security Council to include more countries? Should we end or modify permanent vetoes? Or at least have a rule you can’t use them to protect yourself? Should the Sec. Council meet like Congress (and the Gen Assembly) rather than only to respond to crises periodically? Should more power be shifted to the general assembly or a new UN layer? Would this increase the credibility of the place Weighted voting on population or some other type of democracy? A military force and taxation powers? Autonomy for delegates? Here, the US Senate model vs. Articles of Confederation are interesting Do we need to establish clearer, binding rules compelling domestic intervention?