Southwest Monsoon Forecast 2019

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Presentation transcript:

Southwest Monsoon Forecast 2019

JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER MONSOON 2019 FORECAST 93% OF LPA (+/-5%) BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (LPA=887 mm) LPA (Long Period Average) © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

15% Drought 30% Normal 55% Below Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (JJAS) 15% Drought 30% Normal 0% Above Normal 0% Excess 55% Below Normal EXCESS ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL BELOW NORMAL DROUGHT © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

MONSOON FORECAST 2019 289 mm 261 mm 266 mm 263 mm 173 mm 164 mm 171 mm © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

10% Above Normal 15% Normal 75% Below Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON JUNE 77% OF LPA NORMAL IS 164 mm 10% Above Normal 15% Normal 75% Below Normal EXCESS ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL BELOW NORMAL DROUGHT © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

15% Above Normal 35% Normal 55% Below Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON JULY 91% OF LPA NORMAL IS 289 mm 15% Above Normal 35% Normal 55% Below Normal EXCESS ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL BELOW NORMAL DROUGHT © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

30% Below Normal 55% Normal 15% Above Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON AUGUST 102% OF LPA NORMAL IS 261 mm 30% Below Normal 55% Normal 15% Above Normal EXCESS ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL BELOW NORMAL DROUGHT © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

30% Below Normal 55% Normal 15% Above Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON SEPTEMBER 99% OF LPA NORMAL IS 173 mm 30% Below Normal 55% Normal 15% Above Normal EXCESS ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL BELOW NORMAL DROUGHT © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

El Niño and La Niña Forecast © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (JJAS) 36N 33N 30N 27N 24N 21N 18N 15N 12N 9N Rainfall Departure: -7% East and Central India along with some pockets of South Peninsula could be at risk Good rains for Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Coastal Andhra Pradesh 69E 72E 75E 78E 81E 84E 87E 90E 93E 96E 99E -50 -40 -30 -20 -15 -10 -5 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION JUNE 36N 33N 30N 27N 24N 21N 18N 15N 12N 9N Rainfall Departure: 23% Deficit rains for the country Below normal rains for Central and East India Monson yet to advance in Northwest India 69E 72E 75E 78E 81E 84E 87E 90E 93E 96E 99E -50 -40 -30 -20 -15 -10 -5 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION JULY 36N 33N 30N 27N 24N 21N 18N 15N 12N 9N Rainfall Departure: -9% Below normal rains for central and western parts of the country Normal rains for South India 69E 72E 75E 78E 81E 84E 87E 90E 93E 96E 99E -50 -40 -30 -20 -15 -10 -5 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AUGUST 36N 33N 30N 27N 24N 21N 18N 15N 12N 9N Rainfall Departure: 2% Good rains for central parts, Western Ghats and Northeast India Below normal rains for East India and northwest plains 69E 72E 75E 78E 81E 84E 87E 90E 93E 96E 99E -50 -40 -30 -20 -15 -10 -5 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION SEPTEMBER 36N 33N 30N 27N 24N 21N 18N 15N 12N 9N Rainfall Departure: -1% Normal rains for the country Above normal rains for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh 69E 72E 75E 78E 81E 84E 87E 90E 93E 96E 99E -50 -40 -30 -20 -15 -10 -5 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS ANDHRA PRADESH BIHAR Bihar Siwan Bihar Gopalganj Bihar Kaimur (Bhabua) Bihar Saran Bihar Lakhisarai Bihar Jamui Bihar Aurangabad Bihar Patna Bihar Banka Bihar Arwal Bihar Pashchim Champaran Bihar Madhubani Bihar Purnia Bihar Rohtas Bihar Araria Bihar Katihar Bihar Muzaffarpur Bihar Sheikhpura Bihar Nalanda Andhra Pradesh Kurnool Andhra Pradesh Krishna Andhra Pradesh Guntur Andhra Pradesh Sri Potti Sriramulu Nellore Andhra Pradesh Chittoor Andhra Pradesh Anantapur Andhra Pradesh Y.S.R. BIHAR Bihar Vaishali Bihar Samastipur Bihar Bhojpur Bihar Supaul Bihar Darbhanga Bihar Madhepura Bihar Nawada Bihar Khagaria Bihar Munger © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS JHARKHAND Bihar Sheohar Jharkhand Simdega Bihar Kishanganj Bihar Buxar Bihar Begusarai Bihar Purba Champaran Bihar Jehanabad Bihar Bhagalpur Bihar Sitamarhi Bihar Saharsa Bihar Gaya Jharkhand Simdega Jharkhand Pashchimi Singhbhum Jharkhand Ranchi Jharkhand Dhanbad Jharkhand Palamu Jharkhand Chatra Jharkhand Bokaro Jharkhand Jamtara Jharkhand Gumla Jharkhand Purbi Singhbhum Jharkhand Latehar Jharkhand Saraikela-Kharsawan Jharkhand Godda JHARKHAND Jharkhand Giridih Jharkhand Pakur Jharkhand Kodarma Jharkhand Lohardaga Jharkhand Garhwa Jharkhand Ramgarh Jharkhand Khunti Jharkhand Dumka Jharkhand Hazaribagh Jharkhand Deoghar Jharkhand Sahibganj © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS KARNATAKA Karnataka Kodagu Karnataka Dharwad Karnataka Chitradurga Karnataka Raichur Karnataka Chikkaballapura Karnataka Bangalore Karnataka Yadgir Karnataka Haveri Karnataka Dakshina Kannada Karnataka Bangalore Rural Karnataka Udupi Karnataka Mandya Karnataka Uttara Kannada Karnataka Gulbarga Karnataka Ramanagara Karnataka Kolar Karnataka Gadag Karnataka Bijapur Karnataka Dharwad Karnataka Bidar Karnataka Shimoga Karnataka Mysore Karnataka Bagalkot Karnataka Davanagere Karnataka Tumkur Karnataka Hassan Karnataka Bellary Karnataka Chikmagalur Karnataka Koppal Karnataka Chamarajanagar © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS MADHYA PRADESH Madhya Pradesh Narsimhapur Madhya Pradesh Dhar Madhya Pradesh Sehore Madhya Pradesh Neemuch Madhya Pradesh Raisen Madhya Pradesh Chhindwara Madhya Pradesh Tikamgarh Madhya Pradesh Jhabua Madhya Pradesh Mandsaur Madhya Pradesh Singrauli Madhya Pradesh Alirajpur Madhya Pradesh Mandla Madhya Pradesh Jabalpur Madhya Pradesh Rajgarh Madhya Pradesh Dindori Madhya Pradesh Seoni Madhya Pradesh Hoshangabad Madhya Pradesh Panna Madhya Pradesh Barwani Madhya Pradesh Harda Madhya Pradesh Khandwa (East Nimar) Madhya Pradesh Chhatarpur Madhya Pradesh Bhopal Madhya Pradesh Vidisha Madhya Pradesh Dewas Madhya Pradesh Sagar Madhya Pradesh Burhanpur Madhya Pradesh Khargone (West Nimar) Madhya Pradesh Indore Madhya Pradesh Betul Madhya Pradesh Ashoknagar Madhya Pradesh Agar Malwa © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS MAHARASHTRA Maharashtra Bid Maharashtra Nagpur Maharashtra Solapur Maharashtra Gadchiroli Maharashtra Jalgaon Maharashtra Gondiya Maharashtra Jalna Maharashtra Washim Maharashtra Nagpur Maharashtra Buldana Maharashtra Latur Maharashtra Osmanabad Maharashtra Wardha Maharashtra Amravati Maharashtra Akola Maharashtra Aurangabad Maharashtra Nandurbar Maharashtra Ahmadnagar Maharashtra Dhule Maharashtra Bhandara Maharashtra Chandrapur Maharashtra Nanded Maharashtra Parbhani Maharashtra Hingoli Maharashtra Yavatmal © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS WEST BENGAL West Bengal North Twenty Four Parganas West Bengal Nadia West Bengal Maldah West Bengal Haora West Bengal Purba Medinipur West Bengal Dakshin Dinajpur West Bengal Hugli West Bengal Barddhaman West Bengal Puruliya West Bengal Alipurduar West Bengal Koch Bihar West Bengal Bankura West Bengal Kolkatta West Bengal Uttar Dinajpur West Bengal Jalpaiguri West Bengal Paschim Medinipur West Bengal Birbhum West Bengal South Twenty Four Parganas West Bengal Murshidabad © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

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