Q: How can we make people believe our predictions/projections?

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Presentation transcript:

Q: How can we make people believe our predictions/projections? Modeling Group Q: How can we make people believe our predictions/projections? A: Hard working (??!!)

Source of predictability Intrinsic predictability of phenomena Initial condition (data assimilation/initialization) Model (physical parameterization)

Prediction/Projection with purpose Less than 1 month : initial condition - Increasing observational data - Estimating error, observation operator ~ Seasonal : initial(CGCM)/boundary(AGCM) - Making accurate oceanic initial condition ~ Climate Change : boundary condition - Uncertainties in greenhouse gas concentrations Model uncertainties in all categories

Shukla et al. 2006 Climate Sensitivity Model error metric (current climate)

Academic to operational sector Small percent of the new graduated student have their job in operational center - Safe(?) life - Lack of position - Freedom in research

Further discussion Keep the BBS (possible?) We expected more warmer BBS than now after the workshop Comparison of Asian summer monsoon simulation (3 models)

Thank you very much!!