MPU September 2008 080904.

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Presentation transcript:

MPU September 2008 080904

Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 4. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank´s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 5. Number of employed Thousands of persons, seasonally adjusted data Note. Broken line represent the Riksbanks forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 6. CPI Annual percentage change Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 7. CPI, CPIF och CPIX Annual percentage change Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 8. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly average Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank forecast. Source: The Riksbank

Figure 9. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel, future prices Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

Figure 10. Real interest rate Per cent, quarterly average Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank forecast. Source: The Riksbank

Figure 11. CPIX excluding energy and food Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

Figure 12. Estimated gaps Percentage deviation from the HP trend Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change, ( ) = MPR 2008:2 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table 2. Inflation, 12-month figures Annual percentage change, ( ) = MPR 2008:2 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table 3. Repo rate forecast Per cent, quarterly averages, ( ) = MPR 2008:2 Source: The Riksbank

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table 4. Summary of financial forecasts Per cent, annual average, ( ) = MPR 2008:2 * Per cent of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank Table 5. International conditions Annual percentage change, ( ) = MPR 2008:2 Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table 6. GDP by expenditure Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified ( ) = MPR 2008:2 *Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table 7. Production and employment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified, ( ) = MPR 2008:2 *Per cent of labour force Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table 8. Wages and unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data ( ) = MPR 2008:2 *Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Table 9. Latest outcome and previous forecasts for central forecast variables Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data ( ) = MPR 2008:2 *Percentage of labour force, seasonally adjusted data ** Outcome for quarter 3 refers to the mean value for July and August Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank