Interpretation of transport indicators Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE 24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica

Outline 1.Global trends 2.Consumption by mode 3.Road consumption by type of vehicle

3 Objectives: o To analyze consumption trends compared economic growth, and identify homogeneous periods o To point out the importance of the different modes o To analyze road transport energy consumption in relation with the increase in the stock of cars or road vehicles o Content o Transport energy consumption, GDP and transport intensity (index, 2000= 100) o Consumption by mode (2 chart pies 2000 et 2010) o Road energy consumption, GDP and stock of cars (index, 2000= 100)) Global trends: objectives and content

Global trends in transport sector 4 Medener Identification of homogeneous periods : 2 periods and Transport intensity defined in relation to the GDP as all sectors contribute to transport consumption Energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and transport intensity: Chile

Transport energy consumption drivers and intensity 5 Medener Since 2008 transport energy consumption is decreasing although GDP is growing; this contrasts with the previous period The ratio transport energy consumption per unit of GDP is decreasing especially since 2008 Trends in energy consumption, GDP and transport intensity (Chile)

Transport consumption by mode : case of Chile Distribution of transport consumption by mode (Chile) Road is dominant with 80% of total transport energy consumption in 2010 Increasing share of road transport Significant share for maritime transport but decreasing

Road transport global trends: case of Chile Road energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and stock of cars: Chile Identification of homogeneous periods : 2 periods and to be used for the rest of the presentation

Summary analysis of road transport trends by period: case of Chile 8 Medener Road energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and stock of cars: Chile Since 2006, the stock of cars is growing faster than the GDP, The consumption of road transport is increasing twice slower than the stock of cars.

Outline 1.Global trends 2.Consumption by mode 3.Road consumption by type of vehicle

10 Objectives: o To analyze energy efficiency trends by mode (road, air) o To analyze the impact of the change in the composition of the road vehicles fleet on the average specific consumption of road transport o Content: a.Specific consumption of road transport (per vehicle and per car equivalent) : in aggregation and by type of fuel b.Specific consumption of air and rail transport (histograms 2000 and 2010) c.Specific consumption of road transport per vehicle Consumption by mode: objectives and content

Trends in specific consumption of road transport : Chile Consumption of road transport per vehicle Slight decrease in average specific consumption of road transport per vehicle Strong decrease for diesel vehicles, partly linked to the dieselisation of light vehicles and cars (increase share of diesel cars from 1% in 2000 to 11 in 2011)

12 Consumption of road transport per vehicle and per car equivalent to assess overall energy efficiency of road transport For countries that do not have data breaking down the consumption of road transport by type of vehicle, the consumption of road transport per vehicle is not a good indicator of energy efficiency as it may be influenced by a shift in te composition of the vehicle stock; For instance, if the share of light vehicles (e.g. motorcycles for gasoline or cars for diesel increases this will decrease the average consumption per vehicle all things being equal... and this is not linked to energy efficiency improvements. To clean the consumption of road transport per vehicle from this structural effect, calculation of a unit consumption of road transport per equivalent car, the variation of which will be independent on the change in the composition of the stock of vehicles.

13 Calculation of the average consumption of road transport per car equivalent For countries that do not have data breaking down the consumption of road transport by type of vehicle, calculation of a unit consumption of road transport per equivalent car This indicator relates the total consumption of road transport to a fictitious stock of vehicles, measured in terms of numbers of equivalent cars. Converting the actual stock of vehicles into a stock of equivalent cars is based on a coefficient reflecting the difference in the average yearly consumption between each type of vehicle and a car: o If, for instance, a motorcycle consumes 0.2 toe/year on average and a car 1 toe/year, one motorcycle is considered to be equivalent to 0.2 cars. o In the same way if light vehicles and trucks consume on average 5 toe/ year each vehicle for road transport of goods is equivalent to 5 cars

Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition of the vehicle stock: Bolivia 14 In Bolivia, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing more rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-6.4%/year compared to -4.4%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that contributed to reduce the consumption per vehicle by 2%/year ; the consumption per car equivalent gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport, which can be estimated at 4.4%/year energy efficiency indicator Effect of change in the composition of the vehicle stock

Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition of the vehicle stock : Chile 15 In Chile, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing slightly less rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-2%/year compared to - 2.3%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that contributed to reduce the consumption per vehicle by 0.3%/year ; the consumption per car equivalent gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport, which can be estimated at 2%/year

Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition of the vehicle stock : Costa Rica 16 In Costa Rica, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing less rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-0.5%/year compared to -1.9%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that contributed to reduce the consumption per vehicle by 1.4%/year ; the consumption per car equivalent gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport, which can be estimated at 0.5%/year

Air transport Specific consumption of air transport and passenger traffic (Chile) The specific energy consumption of air transport remained on average rather steady until 2008 and decreased rapidly since then; Trend in this specific consumption is usually negatively correlated with the traffic (i.e. rapid decrease with a rapid growth in traffic and vice versa)

Outline 1.Global trends 2.Consumption by mode 3.Road consumption by type of vehicle 4.Indicators of modal shift

19 Objectives: o To show the weight of different type of vehicles in road consumption o To analyze specific energy consumption trends for cars and trucks o Contents: o Specific consumption of cars: o liter/100 km for new cars o liter/100 km for cars (average stock of cars) o Specific consumption of trucks Consumption of road transport by type of vehicle: objectives and content

Distribution of road transport energy consumption by type of vehicle Distribution of road transport energy consumption by type of vehicle (country x)

21 Specific consumption of cars (EU average)

Specific consumption of new cars: Chile Source: CV (Centro de Control y Certificación Vehicular), de acuerdo al protocolo internacionalmente aceptado ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation).

Outline 1.Global trends 2.Consumption by mode 3.Road consumption by type of vehicle 4.Indicators of modal shift

Decreasing share of non-road goods traffic in almost all the countries Increasing share of rail and water for 8 countries since 2000 (Sweden, UK, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Spain, Portugal and Greece) 24