Wage formation and monetary policy

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Presentation transcript:

Wage formation and monetary policy Deputy Governor Svante Öberg

Figure 1. Difference between inflation in Sweden and Germany Percentage points Note. Inflation is measured as the annual percentage change in the CPI. The series is equalised using a 3-month moving average. Sources: Statistics Sweden, Federala statistics agency in Germany and the Riksbank

Note: Exchange rate is EUR/SEK from 2002. Figure 2. Relative unit labour costs and nominal exchange rate: Sweden compared to Germany Index, 1960=100 Relative unit labour costs Nominal exchange rate: DEM/SEK Relative unit labour costs converted to SEK Note: Exchange rate is EUR/SEK from 2002. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Riksbank

Figure 3. Relative unit labour costs in the manufacturing industry: Sweden compared to TCW-weighted countries Index, 1970-01-01=100 Note: Converted to SEK. Source: OECD

Figure 4. Real hourly wages Annual percentage change Source: National Mediation Office

Figure 5. Unit labour costs in entire economy Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Productivity Labour costs per hour Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note: Broken lines and columns are the Riksbank’s forecasts.

Figure 6. Labour productivity in entire economy Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Note: Squares are the Riksbank’s forecasts. Outcomes are quarterly data and the forecasts are annual averages. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 7. Cyclical variation in GDP and number of employed Percentage deviation from trend Employment Note: Trend calculated using Hodrick-Prescott filter. Broken lines are the Riksbank’s forecasts. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 8. GDP Quarterly percentage changes translated to annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data Note: Broken line is the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 9. Employed 1000s, seasonally-adjusted data Employed 16-64 age group Employed 15-74 age group Note: The squares are the Riksbank’s forecasts, 15-74 age group. The outcomes are quarterly data and the forecasts are annual averages. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 10. Unemployment Percentage of labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Unemployment 16-64 age group Unenployment 15-74 age group Note: Broken line is the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 age group. Data before 1993 is linked by the Riksbank. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 11. CPI and CPIF inflation Annual percentage change Note: Broken lines are the Riksbank’s forecasts. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 12. Competition-weighted exchange rate, TCW index Index, 1992-11-18 = 100 Note: Outcomes are current rates to 081201 and the forecasts are quarterly averages. Broken line is the Riksbank’s forecast. Source: The Riksbank

Figure 13. Labour costs, labour productivity and CPI in Sweden and the euro area Average of annual percentage change 2000-2008 Sweden Euro area Labour cost index Productivity CPI Source: Eurostat