Impact of transboundary transport on surface ozone pollution in Poland in 2012 and 2013 Joanna Struzewska Warsaw University of Technology Jacek W. Kaminski, EcoForecast Foundation Pawel Durka, EcoForecast Foundation Karol Szymankiewicz, Warsaw University of Technology Wspomaganie systemu oceny jakości powietrza z użyciem modelowania w zakresie ozonu troposferycznego dla lat 2012 i 2013. Praca wykonana na zlecenie Głównego Inspektoratu Ochrony Środowiska.

Outline Ozone assessment in Poland in 2012 and 2013 GEM-AQ model description and configuration Emission data processing Modelling results evaluation Trasboundary impact on ozone exposure diagnostics Summary

Ozone assessment in Poland Responsible institution - National Inspectorate for Environmental Protection Modelling centre: Warsaw University of Technology (Department of Environmental Engineering) + EcoForecast Foundation 2012, 2013 Modelling results on national scale (in two resolutions – 15km and 5 km) delivered to VIEPs by the end of March next year Impact of transboundary transport assessed at 15km resolution

GEM-AQ model description 1/2 GEM-AQ developed by the Multiscale Air Quality Network coordinated by York University in Canada Host meteorological model – the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) (Côté, et al., 1998) – Canadian operational weather forecast model Tracer transport, vertical diffusion and deep convection Gas phase chemistry Photodissociation rates – on-line Wet chemistry Aerosol chemistry and physics

GEM-AQ model description 2/2 On-line coupling Gas phase chemistry Extended ADOM II 52 chemical species VOC - lumped molecular approach 116 chemical reactions, 19 photochemical reactions Dry and wet removal Aerosol module Aerosol chemistry and physics based on CAM (Gong, 2003) 5 chemical types (OC, BC, sulphates, sea salt, dust) 12 size bins 0.005 - 20.48 m Heterogeneous reactions Advection and diffusion as for water vapour in the host meteorological model

GEM-AQ model configuration 28 vertical layers up to 10 hPa Resolution: 0.125 deg global variable grid - core over Central Europe, 0.05 deg nested grid over Poland Timestep: 450 sec – global simulation 120 sec – nested simulation Objective Analysis from CMC every 12 hours Output for nested simulation – every hour

Anthropogenic emission EMEP inventory All reported species (SOx, NOx, VOC, CO, PMs, NH3) EMEP domain – MERCATOR 0.5ox0.5o SNAP (01-10) Annual average Unit: [Mg(species)/cell] Ozone assessment 2012  inventory valid for 2010 Ozone assessment 2013  inventory valid for 2011

Emission flux relocation SNAP7 SNAP2 NO2 – SNAP07

DeltaTool – daily maximum scatterplot 2012 2013

DeltaTool – Taylor diagram 2012 2013

DeltaTool – Target plot 2012 2013

Transboundary transport No anthropogenic emissions over Poland Measures AD = ZeroPL – Base_run RD = AD / Base_run *100%

Number of days < 120 μg/m3 2012 2013

SOMO35 2012 2013

AOT40 2012 2013

Ozone episodes 27.04– 3.05 7 Local production Inflow from the west 24% 2012 days Inflow direction % LTO % AOT40 % SOMO35 27.04– 3.05 7 Local production Inflow from the west 24% 7% 8% 18–24.05 Inflow from the west, south-west and south, 13% 6% 26–31.07 6 10% 12% 5% 1–6.08 Inflow from teh west 11% – 19–24.08 Local production + inflow 9% Sum 32   62% 32% 30% 2013 days Inflow direction % LTO % AOT40 % SOMO35 26–29.07 4 Western inflow 20% 11% 5% 5–8.08 Local production South-western inflow 17% - 17–18.08 2 8% 3% Sum 10   45% 13%

Near surface temperature

Summary Modelling results meet model accuracy requirements defined in the 2008/50/EC Directive Different direction of the impact of transboundary transport on ozone pollution in 2012 and 2013 Highest transboundary impact along borders and southern direction In 2012 role of country emissions more important Based on measurements: In 2012 highest number of regional scale photochemical episodes over Poland (32 days in 2012 and 10 days in 2013) Highest number of information threshold exceedings in 2013 Level of exposure similar – higher ozone background in 2013

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