Uncertainties in VOC emission inventory from solvents application Sergey Kakareka, Tamara Kukharchyk, Anna Malchykhina Institute for Nature Management, Minsk, Belarus 17th Task Force on Measurement and Modelling Meeting Utrecht, Netherlands, 18-20 May 2016

Included into presentation: ESIG VOC inventory vs. EMEP inventory WebDab data on VOC emission and paints/solvents application AEIGB methodology for VOC emission inventory from coatings application VOC inventory from solvents in Belarus emission statistics top-down emission estimates bottom up emission estimates Sources of uncertainties in VOC emission inventory from solvents application Conclusions

ESIG VOC inventory vs. EMEP inventory According to: Draft Solvent VOC Emissions Inventories Position Paper– June 2015 COMPARISON OF TOTAL SOLVENT VOC EMISSIONS (EU 27), ktonnes Year ESIG VOC emissions EEA inventories ESIG/EEA 2008 2159 3335 65% 2009 2013 1917 1978 3050 2928 63% 68% NMVOC in kt per country TOTAL EEA HC OXY CHLOR TOTAL before I/E Import / (Export) Grand TOTAL ESIG Germany 637 267.7 267.4 40.5 575.6 (342.5) 233.1 Hungary 38 3.2 3.5 0.5 7.2 14.4 Ireland 20 10.2 7.8 1.4 19.4 0.0 Italy 363.9 62.9 131.9 14.7 209.5 139.2 348.7 Netherlands 56.2 77 80 11.9 168.9 (102.8) 66.1 Poland 208.8 28.4 21.3 3.8 53.5 71.2 124.7 Portugal + Spain 352.7 108.7 79.6 14.3 202.6 79.2 281.8 Sweden 86.2 23.4 15.3 2.9 41.6 17.0 58.6 United Kingdom 342.7 88.4 78.0 12.6 179.0

ESIG VOC inventory vs. EMEP inventory COMPARISON OF TOTAL SOLVENT VOC EMISSIONS (EU 27), ktonnes According to: Draft Solvent VOC Emissions Inventories Position Paper– June 2015

VOC emission from solvents application for 2013 (WebDab data) - discrepancies taking into account size of the country, paints and solvents application (EC vc. EECCA, BY vc. UA, RU..) - verification of emission estimation against solvents/paints application provided by WebDab is difficult…

Paints and solvents application data in WebDab 2011 2012 2013 Total 2094 2189 2016 Italy 909.2 881.8 873.2 Poland 571.4 549.3 544. 8 France 153.6 138.6 133.7 Switzerland 104.38 106.77 109.15 Portugal 139.11 125.84 127.19 Solvents 2011 2012 2013 Total 254.54 258.96 90.575 UK 152.51 Italy 26.26 25.71 25.17 France 19.46 17.83 17.38 Ukraine 4.72 - data have gaps, consistency problems and hardly comparable accounting size of the country data on paints not distributed by types of paints (water-based, solvent-based etc.) so difficult to use methodology of solvents inventory seems vary by countries.

Methodology of inventory of emission from solvents in AEIGB Source category 2D3 Source subcategories are by type of solvent application. Emission estimation are based on application statistics and emission factors: Tier 1: per ton of paints (2.D.3.d – Coating application), per ton of cleaned products (2.D.3.e – Degreasing, 2.D.3.f - Dry cleaning, 2.D.3.g – Chemical products, 2.D.3.h - Printing); Tier 2: per ton of paints (Decorative application, part of Industrial application) or per car, vehicle, kg/wire, kg/leather, kg/m2 boat, kg/product etc. Per ton of paints applied – most common EI methodology. Information on products is mostly available, but information on coatings application is scarce in many countries. No regular statistics on application like for production/export/import. Emission factors per units data on which is statistically provided (for instance, per m2 of living/total area of houses construction) will be valuable.

Inventory of VOC emission from solvents application in Belarus Methodologies Emission statistics Pros. available per sectors initial assessments are made on the basis of paints/solvents applied by facility (solvents balance) Cons. - need assumptions that VOC emission from certain sector are due to solvents application - have gaps: - industry and other sectors report VOC emission if application is in shops only; sectors which not report include construction (buildings, roads, industrial facilities etc. ); share of not reported emissions is hard to estimate; - substances, treated as VOC may not coincide in different countries. Thus, most common petroleum solvent (Nefras) according to regulations in Belarus and some other NIS countries is considered as containing 16% of VOC. This can lead to underestimation of emissions.

VOC emission from solvents application by sectors (by statistical data for 2012) According to statistics, from activities mostly connected with solvents application and chemical products production, in 2012 18.3 thous. t of VOC was emitted (6.5% of VOC emission from stationary sources). Main contributors: Machine and equipment building (3.8 thous. t); Trade, repairing of cars and domestic goods (2.1 thous. t), Rubber and plastics production (1.7 thous.t), Wood processing (1.4 thous. t).

2) Top-down emission estimates (balances) Paints and varnishes production in Belarus

Paints produced in Belarus (examples) Enamel PF-115 Profit Lavender First coat ХС-068 “L» Varnish PF-170 Alkyd enamel, diluted by solvent in ratio 1:1 Solvent 66±3 % Solvent 48-55% Acrilic paint, Alpina Renova, Varnish NC Varnish PF-283 Water-based Solvent 70-80% Solvent 60-70%

Balance of paints and varnishes in Belarus

VOC emission from solvents application in Belarus in 2012 for EMEP emission report (top-down approach used) NFR Sector VOC, thous.t 3 A 1 3 A 1 Decorative coating application IE 3 A 2 3 A 2 Industrial coating application 61.813 3 A 3 3 A 3 Other coating application 3 B 1 3 B 1 Degreasing 3 B 2 3 B 2 Dry cleaning 0.036 3 C 3 C Chemical products 1.154 3 D 1 3 D 1 Printing 3 D 2 3 D 2 Domestic solvent use including fungicides 8.93 3 D 3 3 D 3 Other product use 6.069 Total 78.01

Assessment of solvents balance in Belarus (visual consumption) According to estimates, annually in Belarus about 56 thous. tonnes of solvent-type substances are used, almost half of them – Petroleum solvent (Nefras). Part of them are mainly used not as solvents (acetone,o-xylene), so consumption of ‘true’ solvents - about 37 thous.t. – almost twice less than according to paints balance.

Sources of uncertainty in top-down approach Methodologies of inventory A) Balance of paints and varnishes - complexity of production statistic classifiers, different ways of aggregation - differences and changes of production and trade classifiers - difficulties in estimation of VOC content in products accounting to products codes - difficulties in separation of paints and varnishes from other paints-like products difficulties in separation of products by sphere of application significant changes in production rates from year to year which can hard to explain by consumption within the country В) Balance of solvents - direct statistics of solvents for paints do not account many substances which can be used as solvents - many substances can be used both as solvents and for other purposes (hydrocarbons, acetone, xylenes etc.) - solvents are used at production of paints and varnishes and at later stages; this can lead to double counting   Comparison of statistical VOC emission with paints and varnishes application applicable at facility level only in industry (coating in shops) – only such sources report VOC emissions. Thus usage of visual consumption of paints and varnishes as the basis of VOC emission estimation can lead to significant errors.

Paints and varnishes application by sector (bottom up approach)

Overall paints and varnishes annual consumption in Belarus - 86-134 thous. t, including solvent-based 44-77 thous. t; VOC content – 24-39 thous. t, which is close to assessment by solvent balance. But about 30-50 thous. t of paints and varnishes from total amount used according to top-down approach are ‘missed’. Especially large undercounting is for paints on condensation and polymers resins, which are produced in large volumes and used in industry for protection coatings.

Sources of uncertainty in top-down inventory (cont.) double-counting of paints and varnishes in production statistics of facilities which produce them both. This is due to the fact that facilities may use own-produced varnishes for production of paints: this double-counting comprise 20-30% and more of the total amount of production output (level of double-counting depends related to what type of materials estimate is made). facilities which produce paints often use varnishes as half-stuff for their modification and them sold them as new products; this is also accounted in statistics. o-xylene phthalic anhydride petroleum solvents varnishes (s/f) varnishes paints

VOC emission from solvents application in Belarus in 2014 (combined top-down and bottom-up approach used) NFR Sector VOC emission, thous. t 2D3a Domestic solvent use including fungicides 25.58 (Tier 1 EF per person used) 2D3b Road paving with asphalt 0.072 2D3c Asphalt roofing 0.005 2D3d Coating applications 28.66 2D3e Degreasing 0.23 2D3f Dry cleaning 0.2 2D3g Chemical products 5.14 2D3h Printing 1.5 2D3i Other solvent use NA 2G Other product use 1.06 Total 62.449

Conclusions - uncertainty in VOC emission from solvents application is rather high: for Belarus it can be considered as 30-40% overall, with more high level of uncertainty for some sectors (decorative coatings, construction and maintenance etc.). In other EECCA countries uncertainty may be more high; - AEIGB allows to get only approximate estimates of VOC emission from solvents; main reason – lack of statistics on application; - EMEP VOC emission estimates for EC are probably overestimated due to double counting, for EECCA - mostly underestimated (statistical emissions are probably used which are not complete); - possibilities to reduce uncertainties of VOC emission estimates from solvents are limited without special studies; - annual reporting of VOC emission from solvents application is of low accuracy and efficiency duе to lack of reliable statistical data; uncertainty of annual reports limit possibilities for detection of VOC emission trends; application of expert estimates for trends detection is limited.. special guidelines are necessary for treating these issues in emission inventory.

to Pb modeling: some findings Uncertainties of Pb emission inventory study: Test recalculation of Pb emission for Belarus was made: total, for 1a3b (Road transport) and 1A4a-b (Non-industrial combustion) using data on PM emission and implied content of Pb in PM (Webdab) per country. Wide range of Pb emission levels was obtained using this methodology: 1A3b – from 0.02 (AT) to 1004 (CY) t 1A4a-b – from 0.005 (AT) to 22.8 (CH) t Total – from 1.7 (GE) to 1437 (CY) t

Lead emission estimates using implied emission factors

Lead in urban air of Belarus ng/m3 thous. no correlation of lead concentrations in air with cities population, area or population density the city with highest lead emissions from point sources is characterized by highest lead air concentrations a study to explain current levels of lead in the city is on-going including modeling of PM and lead dispersion from point, line and area sources, emission sources and ambient air data analysis etc.

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