Volume 149, Issue 3, Pages e4 (September 2015)

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Volume 149, Issue 3, Pages 577-585.e4 (September 2015) An Accurate Cancer Incidence in Barrett's Esophagus: A Best Estimate Using Published Data and Modeling Sonja Kroep, Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Joel H. Rubenstein, Harry J. de Koning, Reinier Meester, John M. Inadomi, Marjolein van Ballegooijen Gastroenterology Volume 149, Issue 3, Pages 577-585.e4 (September 2015) DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2015.04.045 Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Graphical representation of the Erasmus/UW Model. Gastroenterology 2015 149, 577-585.e4DOI: (10.1053/j.gastro.2015.04.045) Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Diagnostic inaccuracy of endoscopic surveillance in the main analysis of our model. Gastroenterology 2015 149, 577-585.e4DOI: (10.1053/j.gastro.2015.04.045) Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Cancer incidence rates for different lengths of follow-up in the realistic scenario. (A) Mean annual progression rates toward EAC and (B) cumulative cancer incidence toward EAC. Gastroenterology 2015 149, 577-585.e4DOI: (10.1053/j.gastro.2015.04.045) Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 (Upper panel) Cancer incidence rates per 1000 BE patients for 20 years of follow-up in the population-based design without any surveillance (perfect surveillance scenario), in the population-based and prospective design for the realistic scenario. (Lower panel) Cumulative cancer incidence rates per 1000 BE patients for 20 years of follow-up in the population-based design without any surveillance (perfect surveillance scenario), in the population-based and prospective design for the realistic scenario. Gastroenterology 2015 149, 577-585.e4DOI: (10.1053/j.gastro.2015.04.045) Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 5 HGD and cancer incidence rates for different lengths of follow-up in the realistic scenario. (A) Mean annual progression rates toward HGD and EAC and (B) cumulative cancer incidence toward HGD and EAC. Gastroenterology 2015 149, 577-585.e4DOI: (10.1053/j.gastro.2015.04.045) Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 6 Cancer incidence rates for different lengths of follow-up in the sensitivity analysis. Perfect surveillance scenario: (A) mean annual progression rates toward EAC and (B) cumulative cancer incidence toward EAC. False-positive BE scenario: (C) mean annual progression rates toward EAC and (D) cumulative cancer incidence toward EAC. Halting surveillance scenario: (E) mean annual progression rates toward EAC and (F) cumulative cancer incidence toward EAC. Gastroenterology 2015 149, 577-585.e4DOI: (10.1053/j.gastro.2015.04.045) Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Supplementary Figure 1 Graphical representation of the natural history of EAC in the Erasmus/UW model. Gastroenterology 2015 149, 577-585.e4DOI: (10.1053/j.gastro.2015.04.045) Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions