Janusz Cofala and Zbigniew Klimont

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Presentation transcript:

Janusz Cofala and Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Overview of bilateral consultations with Member States and other stakeholders at IIASA

Contents Scope and timing of consultations Model results vs. national emission inventories for 2000 Remaining problems and uncertainties Conclusions

Scope and timing of bilateral consultations IIASA met with representatives of 22 countries and 6 industrial associations Meetings took 45 days over a period 25 March – 23 November 2006 127 national and industrial experts participated Information collected/verified: National scenarios up to 2020 for energy, transport, agriculture, industrial processes, and VOC sources Emission factors and other country-specific parameters “Current legislation” penetration of emission control technologies and potential for further controls Exchange of information till mid-September 2005

SO2 emissions – national assessment vs. GAINS estimate

NOx emissions – national assessment vs. GAINS estimate

PM emissions – national assessment vs. GAINS estimate

Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs. earlier assessment

Problems and uncertainties (SOx, NOx, PM) Transport – Veh-km and vehicle numbers often inconsistent with fuel consumption. Projections of vehicle numbers available only for a few countries Differences in reporting transport emissions – fuel sold vs. fuel used. For NEC fuel sold was taken Treatment of national shipping not always consistent with guidelines PM estimates – some countries don’t report PM2.5 and PM10; not all sources included (e.g., agriculture, small industry, cigarette smoking, barbecues, etc.); different emission factors for biomass combustion in households and from agricultural soils

Conclusions Important improvement of quality of data for GAINS National activity scenarios available for (nearly) all EU Member Countries Much better match of GAINS emissions with national assessment Uncertainties still exist, further improvement desired but diminishing returns from additional efforts Data quality sufficient for integrated assessment for the needs of the revision of the NEC Directive